Racing: Top tips on Ellerslie’s big day

Checkmate winning at Ellerslie on Sunday. Photo / Supplied

Rarely has half a New Zealand racing meeting meant as much as it does at Ellerslie tomorrow.

Not that there is anything wrong with the first four races at our glamour track on Saturday — and you can make a really strong case for backing Steely Man (Race 3, No 4) or the juveniles and speedsters that kick off the card.

But just before 3.30pm tomorrow, Ellerslie starts dishing up the Avondale Guineas with all its NZ Derby repercussions, then the Avondale Cup with its Auckland Cup storylines, a tactical tease in the Group 1 Sport Nation Classic and wraps the day with the Uncle Remus, one of the best guides yet to the NZB Kiwi in 15 days.

So many stars, options, different motivations and some confusing barrier draws and even if all four favourites roll home their supporters will land a 50-1 multi.

Put that all into the mixer and you could come out with a punt plan something like this:

Race 5, Eagle Technology Avondale Guineas, 2100m

Willydoit (1) looks like a Derby winner in waiting and should be even more potent over 2100m. If he wins he starts red hot in the Derby, if he doesn’t win then who can beat him here?

Hinekaha (15) is a serious filly who suited up in distance but may be ridden cold while the draws also don’t aid Bourbon Proof (2) or Oceana Dream (3) either. The chances don’t stop there with Flemington winner Thedoctoroflove (11) headlining a deep support cast in what could be a niggly race.

Suggested bet: It’s hard to tip against Willydoit (1), but he is very short in this field.

Race 6, Eagle Technology Avondale Cup, 2400m

Typical of a modern-day NZ handicap race with a few carrying big weights and the rest on 53kg. Usually, the latter group provides the winner.

The most likely beneficiary is About Time (6) who won the Dunstan Feeds Final and will improve with her next start win. Clearly likes Ellerslie and ticks all boxes.

Son Of Sun (4) gets in beautifully though on 54kg for a Queen Elizabeth Cup winner and was a bold fifth over 1500m last start so vies for top pick and is better value.

Lots of others could win and the Aussie stayers Interpretation and Midnight Blue (now trained here) are proven but weighted accordingly.

Suggest bet: Son Of Sun (4) each way.

Race 7, Sport Nation Otaki-Maori Classic, 1600m

Two horses who love Ellerslie dominate the betting but if you believe in speed maps El Vencedor (1) will be your bet.

He is a rock hard fit proven weight-for-age star who runs on the speed so has all the tactical advantage over the girls Orchestral (7) and Konasana (8). Both of them could get back of midfield while the favourite should lead or trail but Orchestral can still win because she is special.

There are some proper horses here but some haven’t won in a while (Waitak, Aegon) while Qali Al Farrasha isn’t ideally suited by weight-for-age.

Suggested bet: El Vencedor (1) to win.

Race 8, Trevor and Corallie Eagle Stakes, 1400m

Superb race with plenty of NZB Kiwi contenders.

Checkmate (1) might be the best of them, but could get back from a wide draw and will need tempo whereas the emerging Dealt With (2) could be on the speed and take catching.

Sethito (6) should also be handy and while she may be an improver having not raced for nearly two months she has raw speed. Penman (3) can win if he keeps improving while Hankee Alpha (8) looks the real deal but could get back in a race where they scoot some wicked sectionals.

Suggested bet: Split bet Dealt With (2) with cover on Sethito (6).

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.