She'll be short odds in Race 4 around $2.50, but it looks like her race to lose.
Kuro in Race 5 won't be at much better odds after his second to Sweet Idea in the Galaxy and yesterday's quote of $2.90 looked perhaps a touch short given the outside barrier draw, but he needs only reasonable luck in the first 400m to take a whole lot of beating. James McDonald looks the danger on Earthquake.
Savaria takes on her Aussie rivals in Race 6, the A$1 million Australian Oaks.
The group one Queen Of The Turf (race 7) should be a beaut. Favourite yesterday at $3.40 was Melbourne's Noble Protector who will oppose plenty of class in Catkins and New Zealand mares Diademe and Sports Illustrated. English champ and last year's Cox Plate-Melbourne Cup winner Ryan Moore has been engaged for Diademe and Derby hero Opie Bosson will ride Sports Illustrated.
No surprise Hartnell will probably be no better than $2 in today's A$1.7 million Sydney Cup (race 8). Winning the weight-for-age BMW under 57kg and dropping here to a 52kg minimum makes him a weight special. The fact he is a 3200m winner and loves anything rain affected, makes him look gilt-edged. Former New Zealander Who Shot Thebarman is short at second favourite at $4.60, but then his BMW fourth, two lengths from Hartnell, was fabulous. Protectionist's 58kg makes it tough for him given the relativity with Hartnell, but he is class.
The news came through late yesterday that Queen Elizabeth Stakes favourite Contributer is lame and will miss the $4 million weight-for-age contest (race 9). Japan's To The World was at $4 but will now shorten. Cox Plate winner Adelaide is a massive chance and Criterion adds strength. We can't get past To The World's credentials.
A lot swings on the track conditions at the Tauranga meeting. They look like being tough and testing, so here goes.
Queens Rose (R4, No4) has been waiting for an "off" track. Her record in the conditions is superb and she has only to get a reasonable foothold on this track to take plenty of beating. Flower Bomb (No2) is going to love the conditions.
The 58.5kg is tough for a 3-year-old, but Sherpa (No1, R1) will love the conditions and his toughness will hold him right into this result.
Harbour Star (No2) has looked good winning his two starts this preparation and even though this is a fair bit tougher, he has to rate.
Irish Heartbeat (No3, R5) impresses. Toby Autridge turned the mare out in outstanding condition at Ellerslie last start and she won easily.
She is also nominated for Race 8 and will be tough to beat in either.
Dragonkeeper (No4) is one to keep in mind in Race 5.
Difficult to pick between Highly Likely (No3, R6) and Lil Miss Waitoki (No8). The latter was impressive finishing second at Te Rapa two starts back and equally as good winning at Ellerslie last start. The question is whether she will be as good if this track gets deep into the rain-affected zone, where Highly Likely will cope.
Versatile mare Decorah ensured the winning roll of New Zealand racing's most formidable trio continued at Awapuni yesterday.
The five-year-old looked ideally-placed in the Group 3 Swap Stockfoods Manawatu Breeders' Stakes by Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman and so it proved with Opie Bosson once again coming up trumps for the stable.
The Cambridge trainers have enjoyed a stellar domestic season with 85 winners, and a buffer of 24 on closest rival Lisa Latta for the trainers' premiership title, and an impressive 17 black type successes.
They have also been leading players at the Championships with their crack colt Mongolian Khan doubling his Derby tally in Sydney last weekend and Bosson an integral player in the three-year-old's trans-tasman dominance. Decorah was also the recipient of a gun ride from the 34-year-old with a sweet run on the fence.
Baker and Forsman will be hoping yesterday's success is a forerunner to further success in the Queen of the Turf Stakes at Randwick today with Diademe and Sports Illustrated, who provided them with a Group One quinella at Te Aroha last weekend, in action.
- Additional reporting NZ Racing Desk
