From mid-morning Monday Ellis will put that astute assessment on the line again to the tune of millions of dollars.
He says he almost certainly won't be buying similar numbers to the 43 he purchased for Te Akau a year ago, but chances are he will be the leading buyer for the 11th straight year.
"I've had more early demand [for horses] than normal, but I still doubt I'll buy as many as last year.
"Te Akau will be a significant player, though."
In Monday's Sydney Morning Herald Gai Waterhouse's husband Robbie opined that New Zealand's yearling sales series will take a hit because of the weak Australian dollar and the exchange rate with New Zealand.
Two years ago the New Zealand dollar bought you something like 75 Australian cents. Last year that was in the 80-plus cents range and this year it is closer to 95 cents. That might be slightly worrying for yearling vendors, but overall it's good news for buyers, particularly local buyers.
Because of the possibility of decreased pressure from Australian buyers, says Waterhouse, there will be plenty of value horses bought.
Ellis sees it as a great opportunity for first-time dabblers to buy into a well-bred filly to eventually breed from.
"The catalogue is full of top-class fillies for those wanting to buy into breeding.
"This is the opportunity for someone to pick up a high-class filly for what I would consider a good price."
Ellis said Te Akau's approach to buying varies from year to year.
"More than a year ago it started to become obvious that New Zealand was running short of good staying types, so at last year's sales I bought more staying-type horses rather than precocious two- and three-year-olds. I looked for horses that could make it as a 3-year-old then race on at four and five. We decided literally to sacrifice a whole year of 2-year-olds to get these horses through.
"I bought seven Savabeels and four O'Reillys.
"As a result, from the horses I purchased we've had only one runner, Unsurpassed."
The Exceed And Excel colt made a dashing winning debut at Taranaki on January 11 at $1.30.
"We've had six trial winners among the others lately and they'll all be ready to race in March or April."
With Ellis at Karaka will be Te Akau's Singapore trainer Mark Walker.
