KEY POINTS:
MELBOURNE - David Hayes vividly remembers a conversation he had with his father, the late Colin Hayes.
Hayes senior was a master strategist and trainer who handed on any number of tips to his son, but none more valuable than his summation of European stayers.
"Dad told me
English trainers took too much speed out of their stayers," said Hayes yesterday.
Three weeks ago at Caulfield Hayes was once again reminded of the truth of that when Tawqeet stormed home to win the A$2.5 million ($2.8 million) Caulfield Cup.
And late this afternoon the high-pitched Hayes voice will give the handsome former chestnut English stayer a second shout at about the 200m of the A$5 million Melbourne Cup.
What he'll be looking for will be that same burst of explosive speed he's re-injected into the former European stayer.
David Hayes proved his father's point when he turned around former European, Jeune, to win the 1994 Melbourne Cup.
Jeune was considered so close to a good thing that day rider Wayne Harris, to keep his feet on the ground, on Cup eve picked up a bag of toys from a department store and distributed them to the cancer patients in a childrens' hospital to remind himself what was important in life.
David Hayes is just as confident Tawqeet can win the great race today.
The Hayes camp is not being smart about the theory on English stayers. In fact, it is not even a one-way street.
There has been a blending both ways. It has always been accepted - Bart Cummings made it popular - that horses need extreme kilometres into their legs to win the Cup and Saturday's Mackinnon Stakes was a must for practically all Cup runners.
Since the Europeans have been coming out for the Melbourne Cup and showing that even stayers can be got ready in training without racing, few Cup horses now run in the Mackinnon.
In looking for the winner of a Melbourne Cup you have to weigh up the negatives of each runner.
There are plenty around the second favourite, Irish stayer Yeats.
Similarly around the well-fancied Japanese runners Pop Rock and Delta Blues.
You have to mark Tawqeet very hard to come up with anything like a negative.
For starters, the Caulfield Cup almost every year is the best lead-up guide to the Melbourne Cup. Tawqeet has that base covered.
He has been re-handicapped 1kg for his win in Sydney's Metropolitan Handicap and 2kg for the Caulfield Cup, but at 55.5kg he is still at a winner's weight level.
Dwayne Dunn does not have the profile of a Glen Boss or Damien Oliver, but you'd be a nark not to admit his Caulfield Cup ride was picture-perfect.
Hayes' main jockey is the hugely talented, in-form Craig Williams, but the trainer is happy to have Dunn aboard his main Cup hope.
He has a lot of respect for Dunn's nerve under extreme pressure.
And didn't Dunn have to prove that when he decided on an inside home-straight gap to get Tawqeet home at Caulfield.
When several riders, including Derby-winning jockey Michael Rodd, decided not to sweat on an inside gap appearing coming to the home turn and swept out wide, Dunn held his nerve and was rewarded with the race-winning passage.
"Dwayne showed in Hong Kong he could match it with the best in the world," said Hayes.
The way Tawqeet finished off the 2400m at Caulfield leaves little doubt he will stretch his stamina to 3200m. If he's beaten today, it almost certainly won't be because he hasn't seen out the tough trip.
The list of positives even includes the fact that Tawqeet, rather than showing like many horses to be shy of pushing through a gap, actually enjoys racing in tight quarters and taking gaps.
That's almost always necessary in Melbourne Cups.
Tawqeet for all the above reasons, is strongly the top tip for the race.
If horses were machines, not prone to temperament, you'd tip Irish stayer Yeats to be the horse for Tawqeet to beat. He could win by five lengths without surprising anyone.
But he has a history of inconsistency, outstanding one day and lacklustre the next. That makes it very difficult to have confidence in him.
Another worry is the No 4 barrier draw, which his genius rider Kieren Fallon admits is not ideal because he says the last thing he wants to do is give Yeats a dig out of the gates to avoid being pushed back along the inside rail early.
Then there is the tempo of the race. Fallon also agrees Yeats will not be suited if the leaders drop the speed as they usually do in the middle stages.
Yeats will probably either win or run 17th.
Pop Rock and Damien Oliver rate highly and it's difficult to know what 3-year-old Efficient will do.
On sheer talent he is more than good enough to win, but can a horse in his first preparation that was a maiden a couple of months ago see out 3200m at Flemington in November?
Only time is going to tell us that.
The best value in the race is Frankie Dettori's mount Geordieland, which every European trainer, including his own, says has beaten the handicapper and at 54kg looks remarkably well in.
Dettori picked up two of the Breeders Cup races in Kentucky on Sunday morning and Geordieland's trainer Jamie Osborne is delighted about that.
"An in-form Frankie is very good news for me."
Saturday's Saab winner Maybe Better has to be given some hope.
With only 13 starts behind him he has never been looked at as a 3200m horse, but he hit the line very strongly in the Saab and drops from 57kg to 50kg. Brian Mayfield-Smith is one of Australia's most astute trainers.
