If you ask trainer Andrew Clarken to come up with a reason why Tinseltown can't win tomorrow's $100,000 DHL Counties Cup he can't.
"No, there is no reason why he shouldn't."
Clarken is delighted with the way Tinseltown has come up in his first preparation under Clarken's own first season with Ballymore Stables.
If he had one item on the wish list earlier in the week it was for a bit of rain for the weekend.
That became a reality midweek when drizzle was forecast for today, turning to rain tomorrow.
"That would be ideal because he goes best when there is a bit of rain around.
"He doesn't necessarily need it heavy, or perhaps even like it heavy, but he's probably at his best when it's dead or slow."
This will be the first race that suits Tinseltown this preparation.
"I thought his first two runs were very good," says Clarken.
"He finished second over 1400m then in a race where they raced [best] forward he finished fifth from the back. The 2100m this time suits him and he's got a good gate."
Training partner Mike Moroney was over from Melbourne for the Ready To Run sale at Karaka this week and inspected the stable horses on Wednesday.
"Mike was really pleased with this horse."
Tinseltown's last win was in the Te Aroha Cup in April, followed by a close second to Indikator in the Rotorua Cup, a race he won the previous year when it was run at Te Aroha.
During a Queensland winter campaign he finished second in the Caloundra Cup.
On 53.5kg, Minqar Qaim poses a real threat. He finished seventh, five lengths from Altered Image in the $250,000 Coupland's Bakeries Mile at Riccarton last start, coming from the tail of the field and having very little room to work in over the final stages. He finished second, only half a length from The Meista, in the Mile Trial a couple of weeks earlier.
Minqar Qaim is much more a middle distance horse and this race sets up nicely for him.
"If I had a choice to change one thing I would have liked to have had one more week between races," said trainer Jason Bridgman. "It's only a 10-day turnaround with a trip north [from Christchurch] thrown in.
"Having said that, he worked tremendously well on Tuesday and his best form is probably on right-handed tracks."
This field overall might be down a fraction on class from recent years, but that does not mean it lacks chances.
Veloce Bella, Six O'Clock News, So Royal and Amirar are all solid hopes.
There is a sense around So Royal that she is building to a nice win and Six O'Clock News might have broken the hearts of most of his followers, but he has definitely come back this preparation better than for any previous campaigns. This race will be his test.
Veloce Bella ran home strongly over the 1600m of the weight-for-age at Ellerslie on Melbourne Cup day and will appreciate the step up to a middle distance.
Amirar has been running solid races and as one who has yet to win on a firm surface, she will appreciate the forecast rain.
COUNTIES CUP
* Tinseltown is in good shape for new trainer Andrew Clarken.
* He finds a race to suit for the first time this preparation and will be assisted by forecast rain.
* Minqar Qaim comes off good form and will also find this race to his liking.
MIKE DILLON'S PUNTING POINTERS
SO LONG
It might be 15 months since Fritzy Boy won a race, but that makes you forget he finished third to Keep The Peace and Wall Street in the Mudgway then second to Wall Street in the Windsor Park Plate. Yep, he's got 59.5kg in tomorrow's Masterton Cup, but he'll find these six opponents easier than Altered Image in the Coupland's Mile last start.
BURNER
It might be a long way from R80 to Railway, but watch Italian Princess second-up at Pukekohe tomorrow. Provided the wet doesn't kick in, she can do the business again. If it does rain, don't discount stablemate Show Up.
WHETHER THE WEATHER
We haven't had to worry about the weather for a while, but we're going to have to this weekend. Let's hope there's not much moisture because there are some great betting races tomorrow and at Te Rapa on Sunday.
SHOCKING LUCK
Holy Moly looked exceptionally good winning by nearly two lengths at Te Rapa on debut. We'll find out how good from the outside No 13 gate tomorrow. She has plenty of opposition this time.
BIT OF VALUE
Prairie Star is a lot better than her fresh-up eighth in early October suggests. She has subsequently won a barrier trial and could be a bit of each-way in Race 4.
CHRISTMAS
The closer we get to December 25, the more Tinseltown is going to appeal. It may not pay to leave him out of calculations in tomorrow's $100,000 Counties Cup.
TALKING OF CHEER
Chillypin is close enough to chillybin for us in Race 10.
Racing: Tinseltown can take the Cup
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