Ambro The Thug may have everything he needs to win tonight's Flying Stakes at Addington - except a hot pace.
The enigmatic 3-year-old will have his second start for new trainer Tony Herlihy in the feature and will be over the odds, as he always is, for a pacer of his ability.
While Ambro The Thug is only assessed as a one-win horse he has already beaten superstars like Pay Me Christian in last season's Sires' Stakes Final and guns like Jays Debut when running second to Monkey King in the Great Northern Derby.
But even with that sort of record and Herlihy in the sulky he is at $10 to win tonight.
The reason is simple - he is a stayer who needs tonight's 1950m race to turn into a war - but because it is a Derby lead-up it probably won't.
Herlihy realises the problem.
"I think he is good enough to win because he is very well at the moment and better for that last run," said Herlihy.
"But I think he might even be better suited to the Derby next week because he is a real stayer.
"He could win on Friday if they went really hard but if Pay Me Christian gets the front he might get away with an easy time so this might not be the ideal race for us."
Ambro The Thug makes up half of Herlihy's assault on Addington tonight, with class 4-year-old Rivert Waltz the other half.
He looks well placed in race six, which is not a strong field for a $20,000 race of its grade.
Rivert Waltz was impressive winning at Alexandra Park two starts ago then blew his chances from a standing start last time out.
Back to the mobile tonight he should start favourite and looks clearly the one to beat.
"He has travelled well and Luke (Edmonds, stable travelling foreman) said he worked well this week so I think he will be hard to beat."
Herlihy won't just be concentrating on Addington tonight though, with several members of his team racing at Alexandra Park as well.
One of his stable stars Thats Life Lavra starts in the best pacing race of the night but is going to need luck up against the in-form Mr Williams.
"She battled away well last start but wasn't anything special by her standards," said Herlihy.
"We all know how good she is but Mr Williams is racing very well at the moment so we might need some luck to beat him."
The pair clash in race five and although Mr Williams will be a warm favourite he is no certainty against speedsters like Scapa and V For as well as Thats Life Lavra and the much-improved Jag Star.
Herlihy rates Hi Ho Silver Lining in race six his best each-way chance at Alexandra Park tonight.
"I've got two in that race and they are both chances but I wouldn't be surprised to see Hi Ho Silver Lining pop up because she has got a little bit of class," he said.
"Maximus Meridius is tough though so they would be suited by different types of runs."
With most of pacing's big names either in Tasmania for the Interdominions or at Addington, tonight's Alexandra Park meeting should be highlighted by exceptional trotter Our Sunny Whiz.
The 4-year-old mare is unbeaten this season and thrashed most of her race rivals tonight in a similar race last Friday.
She receives a 10m penalty for that and will start off a very tricky mark for a mare with just nine starts to her name but she could be the next big thing in NZ trotting so is impossible to back against with any confidence.
Racing: Thug is armed and ready for anything
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