Although the race has more winning chances than just those three, Spankem and Copy That would be extremely hard to run down if they were able to lead into the first bend or secure the lead soon after.
That early battle of manners is doubly important because both horses have tended to be at their best in front but often vulnerable coming wide. So whoever wins the battle for the front increases their own chances but more than likely puts the other out of their comfort zone.
Green thinks he can win that battle and the Cup.
"I don't think what happened to him in the NZ Cup will bother him," says Green.
"He is such a laidback horse and his work has been great. He stepped quickly at the workouts last weekend and I think he can do that again.
"If he does I want him in front because I don't think he has ever been beaten in front."
A couple of hard runs, most notably that NZ Cup eighth, and some more recent defeats, may have seen Copy That lose some of his lustre but his last loss is best forgotten when he was driven cold, which might have given him a little confidence boost hitting the line hard.
At his best, if he can lead, it will take a supreme performance to beat him and the only rival who would seem likely to give him a start and that beating would be Spankem.
Although his most elite showings, most notably winning the Miracle Mile, have been when leading, Spankem did come from last to beat Self Assured in a 3000m Methven Cup this season, which suggests he has options and the 3200m is not as big an issue as some may think.
As good as Copy That is, Spankem's last two victories suggest he deserves favouritism and he could start close to $2.
Amazing Dream is the hard horse to figure out.
At her best she came from behind Copy That to beat him in the Woodlands Derby here last season but she was also beaten by Beyond Words last start, fell in against the mares the start before and hasn't looked truly commanding this campaign. Yet she finds herself second favourite when by the stats it is hard to make a case for her being shorter than Copy That.
She has X-factor and can win still but on form looks no better chance than Ashley Locaz or Thefixer, both of whom are far more proven in open company.
Although Green is hoping for a quick getaway to help him win the Cup, he knows he may have to rely on tempo to win tonight's equal-richest race, the $200,000 Harness Million with American Dealer.
The little star was fantastic in the Alabar Classic last start but from barrier eight it might need some early tempo to soften the leaders up.
"He is up for it. He is a real little pro so he is ready to win even though it won't be easy," says Green. "I think he is still the best horse in the race."
With the champion All Stars training juggernaut of Mark Purdon and Natalie Rasmussen going on a training sabbatical after tonight's Alexandra Park meeting, here is how their top five winning chances of a fitting farewell rate.
1. Beyond Words (R3, No 7): Beat Auckland Cup contender Amazing Dream last start and drops miles in grade. Only reason the bookies gave $1.35 was because of her draw but that won't matter. Multi maker.
2. Bettor Twist (R5, No 4): May have to sit parked to win but did against an almost identical field last start and that was dragging a flat tyre.
3. Spankem (R9, No 4): If Spankem can step to the lead, it is hard to see much pressure and that could lead to a 3:58-4:00 time for the 3200m, which would cut him perfectly. Stable has huge back-up in Amazing Dream (standing-start experience a query) and Ashley Locaz, who has a tricky second-line draw.
4. Shan Noble (R7, No 9): Huge run to sit parked last start, going down late to the swopping American Dealer. His chances may be determined by whether he gets pushed back on the markers but can still win. Other chances probably rate Pace N Pride, First Class and Aladdin in that order.
5. Riveered (R2, No 6): Alex Park form doesn't look that sharp but was against the best three-year-olds two starts ago then a smart one in Taipo last start. Drops back a long way in grade tonight and while he hardly the smoothest pacer in the world, his $4 opening quote is fair at this level.
