Racing: The Diva’s date with destiny

MELBOURNE - Sometimes you have to ignore logic. Today's A$5 million Emirates Melbourne Cup is one of those occasions.

You can come up with 14 reasons why Australia's champion racehorse Makybe Diva can't win the Cup.

Among them:

* In 144 years no horse has won three Melbourne Cups.

* She will have to create a new weight-carrying record for a mare.

* In 30 years no horse has won carrying as much weight - 58kg.

* The Flemington footing is likely to be slightly firmer than she prefers.

But to hell with logic.

Makybe Diva can't read the record books and champions can do anything.

But don't underestimate the job ahead of her.

The Victoria Racing Club expects a 130,000 crowd today and if Makybe Diva gets over the line, you'll hear the shout in New Zealand.

The VRC estimates the outstanding mare will be directly responsible for the last 20,000 of the crowd.

The public love her, but here's a strange thing, throughout Australia yesterday you could hardly find one tipster prepared to say she could win.

Which will only further fuel the public if she wins.

Makybe Diva's astute trainer Lee Freedman is also her greatest fan.

"It's an eerie feeling," said Freedman yesterday. "I'm training the Melbourne Cup favourite and no one wants to tip her."

The 58kg - 2.5kg more than she carried to win last year - is a tough ask, yet in real terms she is fired into the race.

Since she carried that 55.5kg, Makybe Diva has won five races, three at group one level.

"If one of these European horses came over here with her form they'd be carrying 62kg," said Mike Moroney, who will produce New Zealander Xcellent into the Cup.

Underlining that point is English stayer Distinction. He has won one group one race since finishing sixth in last year's Melbourne Cup and is up 2.5kg this time.

Irish trainer Dermot Weld, who chased Makybe Diva home last year with Vinnie Roe, believes the mare has a competitive weight.

"I think she's very kindly handicapped. In England she would have five pound more with her record."

Probably the strongest argument against Makybe Diva is that in her two previous Cup victories and in last week's Cox Plate, she had suitable rain-affected footing or the best passage imaginable. Or both.

Because of the wet track Glen Boss was able to find plenty of room on an inside run last year.

On a firm track today that's extremely unlikely to happen.

And, if Boss has to pull her off her feet or change ground suddenly looking for a home-straight gap, that 58kg will feel like a truck and trailer.

The one statistic you don't want to look at is the weight column in the Melbourne Cup record book.

Going backwards the winner's weight in the last seven years is 55.5kg, 51kg, 52.5kg, 52kg, 49kg, 50kg and 51kg.

But if any horse can defy the record book, it's Makybe Diva.

She and Boss have a marvellous understanding and are practically unbeatable in the right conditions.

Freedman rarely says much before a race like the Melbourne Cup, yesterday he put every card on the table but one - what his riding instructions to Boss will be.

"I only ever give Bossy one key in all these major races with her. There's enough pressure on him without me complicating it."

Freedman was open on his read of Makybe Diva.

"I thought her Cox Plate win was absolutely outstanding.

"Since then two of the horses she beat, Lotteria and Lad Of The Manor, have won group one races. The form out of the race is remarkable.

"And, yes, she has improved since the Cox Plate."

Right there you might have the mouthful that can silence the record books.

The only thing you won't silence is the crowd.

Melbourne Cup

Where: Flemington, Melbourne.
When: 5pm today.
How much: A$5 million in stakes; over $200 million bet worldwide.
Who: Favourite and two-time winner is Makybe Diva. Best chance of three Kiwis is Xcellent.