By MICHAEL GUERIN
There is not much racing legend Peter Wolfenden does not know about horses.
But he admits he doesn't know the answer to this one.
Will Agua Caliente make a race of it in tonight's $250,000 Auckland Trotting Cup at Alexandra Park?
Wolfenden knows the Auckland Cup better than most.
He has driven the winner six times and trained the incomparable Cardigan Bay to capture the great race twice.
And, with his son Glen, he knows Agua Caliente better than anybody.
Yet he doesn't know what to expect tonight.
He hopes his cranky stable star will step away safely at the start of tonight's 3200m thriller, continue the best summer form of his career and add another cup to that list.
But he knows that Agua Caliente could just as easily blow the start and be no chance after 100m.
Agua Caliente has been in his best form for three years this season, finally winning a major open-class race by downing tonight's cup favourites, Yulestar and Holmes D G, in the New Zealand Free-For-All just four weeks ago.
Yulestar and Holmes D G are the heavyweights, but Agua Caliente's blistering speed could be the decider.
On his best behaviour, Agua Caliente could repeat that Free-For-All win tonight.
But that was a mobile start.
This is a standing start - and a standing start in which Agua Caliente could face the toughest task in the field.
From his starting position on the second line, the twitchy gelding will be sandwiched between the horses on the front line and those handicapped on 10m markers.
It will give him little room to manoeuvre, and even less room for error.
"It will be tough for him back there because he doesn't really like being cramped up like that," Wolfenden said.
"Whether he steps away will depend on a few different things, but I know for sure he can't win if he doesn't make a good beginning."
Wolfenden points to last Friday's Summer Cup as an example of the dilemma facing Agua Caliente or any other pacer who is not switched on when the tapes go ping tonight.
"Some people say he was disappointing when second last Friday, but he still paced his last 2400m in 2m 58s, or something like that," Wolfenden said.
"At this level, when you are starting from behind your rivals, you need a lot of luck because they run times which can make it impossible for you to win."
Wolfenden believes Agua Caliente is as well now as at any stage in his open-class career and that could pay the biggest dividend of his life, should he begin safely tonight.
While he has made his reputation as a speed horse, Agua Caliente has produced three stunning wins over 3200m, all off long handicaps at Alexandra Park.
His best chance tonight would be an economical drag into the race after the leaders had gone hard, giving him the chance to swoop on tiring prey.
Then again, he might gallop at the start and never get close.
But that is Agua Caliente for you.
Just ask Peter Wolfenden.
Racing: The dilemma over cranky trotting star
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