Racing: Testing track awaits Aaja Nachle at Ellerslie

Twilight Dragon will be the one to beat in race 7. Photo / Trish Dunell

There are no jumping races at Ellerslie today - wait until Monday for those - but there is still a hurdle to be cleared.

It's a track that is almost certain to be extremely holding and very testing.

And that could change the form of some of the most fancied runners - in fact, the bigger percentage of favoured horses.

Aaja Nachle in the opening event is likely to be one of them. This is not intended to say Aaja Nachle cannot win, but her best form has been on loose, wet tracks, or better footing than she strikes today as she showed when she ran a tidy 1.12.38 winner on a track that was declared heavy at Te Rapa last start, but was upgraded during the raceday.

If she handles the footing today she should go close to making it a double because with a 3kg claim she comes into the race favourably with 54kg. Britt Ekland with Brendan Hutton's 2kg claim also comes into the race well. Dentelle (No9, R2) has had only three raceday starts and won on debut in heavy conditions. She is fresh again today and has only to manage conditions to be a threat. In an even line-up A Tad Leica (No5) is almost certain to work her way through the footing and Eletist (No2) and Scholes (No6) are dangers.

It took a determined finish from Chill Bill to narrowly get the better of Secret's Only (No3, R3) here last week. They face off again and this time Secret's Only meets Chill Bill (No1) 5kg better off. Matt Cameron rode Secret's Only last week and this time switches to Chill Bill.

Foxburrow Hill (No4, R4) won nicely in slow conditions here two starts back and may have found the Te Rapa track a bit too good last start.

He is a good staying type who will not back away from a decent fight in these conditions. Tavis Star (No6) should be competitive.

Nothing impressed more last week than Gesemi (No5, R5), winning by an increasing 5.5 length margin. She jumps up to open class for the first time, but that is unlikely to slow her progress too much. She has to be the horse to beat. Storming The Tower (No2) would appreciate a wetter, looser track, but he will put in and can go close. The 59kg clear topweight Pump Up The Volume (No1) will lump will be a tough ask, but he is a tough horse.

Banbury Lad (No1, R6) loves the wet. How he will manage this footing remains to be seen, but there is nothing soft about him and he should put in. Single Show (No6) will be favourite.

Queens Rose (No5, R7) has a magnificent record on heavy tracks, but Rotorua last start was simply too heavy.

Forget that and back up on her here, taking the risk she will manage this better. Twilight Dragon (No2) will set them up again and be the one to beat provided he has come through his tough first-up win last Saturday. Biologist (No4) can run a race at reasonable odds.

Waijema (No1, R9) is a mystery. He is a half brother to former fine winter stayer Indikator, who could not operate on sticky tracks.

Waijema appeared not to be too happy in the sticky stuff at Trentham last weekend, but ran a huge race under 59kg to end up fourth. It's unlikely today's footing is going to be ideal, but he's too good to ignore. Victoria Heights (No4) is stepping up from maidens, but is talented.

Don't leave out Spring Cheer (No5, R8) in the Foxton Cup at Wanganui.

Like most of the horses she was hopeless on the extremely heavy track at Rotorua last time.