Racing: Temple Hills could help get day off to winning start

You can't find a better way to start Cup day at Ellerslie tomorrow than Temple Hills in Race 1.

There is a chance he may get the scratching he needs so he can start in the $100,000 Rich Hill Mile instead, but if he doesn't, it will take a big effort to top him off in this race.

Chad Ormsby will tear 2kg off his 58kg. As he is a big, strong type the 56kg will be no trouble to Temple Hills (No1). He is no mean chance if he gets a Rich Hill start, so short odds here will still be attractive. Rosetti Bay (No2) and Tantara (No7) are strong trifecta chances.

The fact headlining juvenile colt Don Garcia (No1, R3) ran 10 lengths below his form last start puts an edge to the $50,000 New Zealand Herald Eclipse Stakes. Whatever the exact reason for that failure, one fact remains obvious, the million dollar colt would not be here if Mark Walker was not happy with him.

Quite simply, if Don Garcia produces the class that he displayed in his first two winning runs he will win this despite the fact that Imananabaa (No9) and Royal Pericles (No2) are hugely talented.

Imananabaa looked very classy in her luckless debut third (promoted from fourth) on Avondale Cup day. Jokers Wild (No3) has the talent to take advantage of the No 1 barrier.

Pentane (No6, R5) has looked a coming cups stayer and the final of the Dunstan Stayers is well within his scope. He was beaten last start, but it would be unwise to judge his chance here on that performance. It was still a good effort and if you go back to his winning run on this track two starts back it's all you really need to know. Look to him to be running at them halfway down the home straight.

Willy Smith (No1) is another with a big staying future and may well start favourite. He, too, can see out a tough staying contest. Tyepan (No2) has taken time to realise the potential she has promised, but it was a nice effort to win last start and she could be on the road upwards.

It's a widely held opinion is that if Pulcinella (No2, R6) had drawn a decent barrier on Boxing Day she would have beaten Shikoba (No1) in the 1600m Eight Carat Classic. I agree with that, but I don't believe it is a given that that means she will beat her in tomorrow's 2000m Royal Stakes. There is no doubting Pulcinella's class, but this is the first time she will be asked to back up.

She appears to be a filly who races a touch better when a little fresh, which is not unusual for some of the stock of Stravinsky. This will be a great contest between these two high class fillies - I'm taking a big risk and saying Shikoba can win again. Twinkling (No5) will probably appreciate the 2000m and should not be left out of multiples.

There will be some that will judge Kerry O'Reilly's beaten performance in the Zabeel Classic as being an indication to his chances in the $200,000 Speights City Of Auckland Cup. That would be a big mistake. We will never know what caused the Zabeel Classic flop - the slightly 'off' track is the probable cause - but given a firm surface this time it is very unlikely to be repeated. Jim Gibbs has been increasingly happy with Kerry O'Reilly (No2, R7) in the days since the Zabeel and the class stayer will be at absolute peak for this.

We don't really know how good Kerry O"Reilly is because rider Cameron Lammas is adamant the big bloke has always held something in reserve in his narrow victories. We should find out how good tomorrow.

Pretorius (No12) is a clear danger. He has looked stronger and stronger with each of his winning runs lately and trainer Jakki Good declares him further improved. He can stay handy and kick very hard late in the race.

If there is yield in the track - and there should be at least a little - Our Kitty (No16) comes into trifecta calculations. She has been set for this race and the warning was there when she rattled home late at the finish of the Avondale Cup on an unsuitable very firm track. Ellerslie is her course. Partee (No9) and Gorgeous George (No14) are trifecta hopes in a field that is probably going to throw up a roughie in the 1,2 or 3 slots.

If the track is close enough to firm then rising star Alonzo (No10, R9) can top off the metric mile guns in the Rich Hill. This is going from the pie cart to the lord mayor's luncheon for Alonzo, but he was always going to successfully make that step at some stage. His three-wide win on Boxing Day, on footing that did not ideally suit, was staggering and he will make the most of the weight advantage over the guns this time.

It's a fair bet Cog Hill (No2) will be an improved horse for his second to Kristov (No1) at Manawatu last start. The 56.5kg will not be easy, but easier than Kristov's 58kg. You would just love to see Kristov defy logic and successfully carry his big weight - stand and cheer if he does - but it might prove beyond him. Despite that, his consistency makes him a logical choice for trifectas.

You could not get a better contest to end a carnival than Race 10. Any underfoot yield will suit Assafa (No11) and in its absence Accardo (No10) can make it three from three times to the races.

It is not unusual for horses to drop a little bodyweight after a career debut win - astute trainer Russell Cameron says Accardo put on 20kg between his first and second wins. With that sort of constitution horses keep going forward and in that condition Accardo's dashing finish is going to be difficult to keep out. Any rain and Assafa's odds will be cut in half. Watch for an improved run from Coup Christchurch (No12).