No one knows more about how Saturday's $1 million The Oaks Stud Telegraph is going to unfold than David Walsh.
As the regular rider of the two favourites Wealth Princess and Coup Align, Walsh has a real handle on how the classic sprint will play out.
The Cambridge jockey is strongly tipping a race record.
"You've got two very fast horses early in A Gold Trail and Coup Align.
"With the Australian [A Gold Trail] drawn the closest to the rail of the pair he will probably want to lead with Coup Align sitting on his outside.
"It's a matter of whether Coup Align is happy sitting parked."
Sydney trainer Gary Portelli says nothing can head A Gold Trail off for speed early and his Railway winning performance helps back that up.
But Walsh believed there was some chance Coup Align might have the pace to cross the Australian sprint star and lead.
"Coup Align jumps with them - he's no quicker than most out of the gates - but then he's incredibly fast over his next four or five strides. And I mean incredibly fast, very few horses could go with him."
Coup Align has never been tested sitting outside the speed or in the trail in a race because in the races he has contested to this point there has never been a horse fast enough to give him a trail.
"He can run along at 11 to the furlong [200m] and he feels like he's doing three-quarter pace.
"You can't go any slower on him because he'd be back to cantering."
Walsh cannot see a scenario where there will be any easing of the speed, which will suit his mount Wealth Princess.
"A Gold Trail seems a push-button horse in that he seems to be able to button off the speed if he's asked.
"He did that at Ellerslie, but it's a matter of whether they'd want him trailing. He's a such a relaxed horse - I've seen him walking around here at the Cambridge track and he's like an old steeplechaser."
Walsh believes Coup Align comes into the race nicely on 52.5kg.
"They thought about running him last year and he had that same weight.
"He's now 12 months more experienced, has won three more races and is in on the same weight. He's extremely well in."
Walsh sees the Telegraph as the first grand final for both Wealth Princess and Coup Align and says the jury is out on how they will handle the assignment.
"This is the acid test for both horses. You never know how good a horse is until they're put under pressure racing against the best."
He says he is pretty sure, though, that Coup Align will not show signs of flakiness when put under pressure.
"He showed plenty of tucker at Riccarton one day when the track was off and he didn't like it wet.
"He's got plenty of courage, don't worry about that."
Walsh believes it would be a mistake to believe Wealth Princess will be out the back of the pack as she has been in her last two starts. At Te Rapa when she missed away, she was in season, and at Ellerslie it was her first time in those [starting] stalls.
"Three starts back she was sixth and one out. I could see her settling somewhere around mid-field."
Walsh says Wall Street concerns him.
"People say he's not a 1200m horse, but there's always been a line that you need to have a 1400m horse to win the Telegraph.
"Mufhasa won the Couplands Mile in 2008 and won the Telegraph last year.
"Who won last year's Couplands? Wall Street.
"Who says he can't win this."
KIND DRAW FOR VISITORS
Australian visitors Keano and A Gold Trail have drawn favourably for Saturday's $1 million Telegraph Handicap.
Keano, from Danny O'Brien's Melbourne stable, drew barrier three in the 17-horse field, while A Gold Trail, from Gary Portelli's Sydney stable, drew eight.
Leith Innes will ride Keano, while Melbourne's Michael Rodd is on A Gold Trail, who won the group one Railway Stakes (1200m) at Ellerslie on New Year's Day.
The New Zealand TAB has installed rising star Wealth Princess as the $5 favourite on its final field book, ahead of last year's Telegraph winner Mufhasa on $7. Wealth Princess is unbeaten in five starts.
A Gold Trail and South Island speedster Coup Align are on $8, while Keano is at $18, the same price as former Sydney sprinter Kiloton, who drew barrier five.
Mufhasa drew barrier 14, Coup Align 11 and promising galloper Wall Street ($9) 13.
- additional reporting by NZPA
Racing: Telegraph record may fall - Walsh
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