Racing: Tauranga choice a case of ifs and buts

Technically Kristov should go close to winning at Tauranga today.

But, and it should be spelled BUT, is Kainui Belle coming back in to her best form?

If she does she will probably win this race.

The danger is that last campaign the extremely high-class mare raced well below her best. She's had a decent spell since and resumes fresh.

Troy Harris will bring Kristov's weight down to 57.5kg, but that is still 3kg above what Kainui Belle will carry and with that differential you would be on Kainui Belle, if you knew she was in her best form.

Wayne and Vanessa Hillis know how to get a horse ready to win fresh from a break and there should be no excuses if Kainui Belle can't produce something like her best at the start of this preparation.

The pair make a wonderful contrast - Kristov is the safest bet in the country to produce his best, Kainui Belle is a risk with her immediate background. Each-way Kristov if the odds allow, or straight out to win with a saver on Kainui Belle and a quinella on the pair. Interesting race.

So is the $50,000 Tauranga Stakes. Millennium (No2, R6) is remarkable in the way he has switched his preference from wet tracks to firm as he's aged.

Winning this race last year was the first time he really showed that trend and has continued to prove it to the point that he won well at Ellerslie last start. As the winner of more than $400,000 he comes into this very well under the weight-for-age scale.

So does Sedecrem (No1), in whom you should see a lot of improvement from this point. He is heading to the veteran stage, is taking more racing to get properly fit and he blew heavily after his beaten performance at Avondale last start.

British Ensign (No3) is badly off in the handicap under weight-for-age, but he looks capable of making the trifecta with Magnetism (No7), racing a touch off his best, dropping down in overall class for this.

With Daniel Hain's 3kg claim, Sophalopha (No1, R5) is going to start favourite. She came from the outside barrier of 14 to be close up fourth last start with no apprentice claim. With a good barrier and a claim this time she is right in the race. But it won't be easy.

Sardonyx (No8) is a classy emerging mare. Coming off a spell, she probably needed her last run and should be fitter this time. Her finishing bursts when wining twice at Ruakaka were stylish. At the odds, Sardonyx might be the better risk and the quinella is worth looking at.

Black Panther (No1, R8) went so badly behind Pulcinella at Te Rapa last start you may as well forget the effort. When horses run 10 lengths off their form you can generally disregard it as a freak flop. Black Panther won his only two previous races, suggesting he is going places.

Missy Elliot (No2) did not justify her solid support when resuming in the weight-for-age sprint at Rotorua last start, but the track was very heavy and it might have been just too much for her. Back to her own age group on decent footing she makes more appeal. There is talent among the rest of the field, but the top two have the experience.

Sideto Emdeca (No5, R10) has often looked a promising stayer. She resumed with a very stylish third at 1600m last start and here steps up to a distance that suits. She is good when smothered for a late run and from the No 2 gate Grant Cooksley should get her a sweet trip.

At Riccarton there will be widespread betting in the $200,000 New Zealand Cup. Trebla (No10, R7) seems to be somewhat ignored after his lead-up win on the first day. Yes, this is a better field, but he jogged home in that race and should be even better suited to the 3200m.

Juicy Fruit Mambo (No4, R7) has probably had what appears to be an unconventional preparation for a major 3200m race, but the astute team of Dawn and Peter Williams know exactly what they are doing. He rates highly, as does Northern Beau (No1). The 57kg is a daunting task, but he shouldered 58kg well when third at Te Rapa last start.

It's difficult to see how you can squeeze a dollar out of the 2000 Guineas. Unless something goes dreadfully wrong, Darci Brahma (No6, R9) will win. And if it did go that badly wrong, anything could win, so you're no better off. Crusoe (No5) should show he is an emerging horse and the consistent Captain Kurt (No4) should complete the trifecta.

The Flemington carnival wound up last Saturday and the official Victorian carnival ends today with the A$400,000 Sandown Classic.

Natural Blitz let his fans down when well beaten in the Saab Quality on Derby day at Flemington, but the stable is claiming some excuses. If that's the case he should prove difficult to beat today. The run to go on was when he was only 1 1/2 lengths from Railings in the Caulfield Cup, a performance which would win this race.