The Best Move might be the best bet at Ellerslie today.
And that is no play on words.
The 4-year-old has won only one race, but that is an inaccurate indication of his ability. Knee operations have slowed the progress of what was always a talented galloper and he looks capable of establishing a platform from which to create a proper career.
His last two starts suggest that. He has been narrowly beaten in a couple of 1200m races, flashing home late in both, when today's 1400m distance would have seen him get the money. At No12, he has drawn a fraction wider than you would like, but he usually drops back to at least midfield and there is every chance the draw will not be a disadvantage. Run Forest Run and Charters look savers in the middle leg of the TAB treble.
St Therese (No13, R8) will give a great sight in the Soliloquy Stakes. Grant Cooksley is a great front-running rider and the filly has shown rare ability as a leader. The 1600m at Ellerslie is not the easiest leader's course, but the combination appeals. Piper Star (No11) and Spirit Of The Nite (No12) are talented fillies, who will see out the metric mile well and Danasia (No5) and Airwaves (No1) are further trifecta chances in a tough field.
Mr Esteem (No2, R3) might be a good way to establish your day's punting bank. Forget his last two starts, he has shown he is better this right-handed way round as he displayed when he flashed home for second to Jaiapeno on this track three starts back. A half-decent barrier draw was all he needed to win that day and from an inside alley this time in a field which is slightly easier, he should go close. Ignore the 58kg joint topweight - there is only 3kg to the bottom of the handicap.
Equuleus (No2, R4) is a filly of some ability. She raced below her best when only ninth behind St Therese at Te Rapa last start, but has been freshened since and probably races best that way. She has the pace to take advantage of her barrier draw and should be challenging at the 300m. Fresh runner Deune (No1) and impressive Ellerslie maiden winner Treasure Chest (No9) are trifecta chances.
Bel Air (No2, R5) is worth an each-way risk. He has had two starts over unsuitable shorter courses since resuming and gets his chance to show something of his true ability over 2100 today. He looked pretty promising as a 3-year-old last season and should be worth following. The Red Dimple (No7) is capable of upsetting a decent field and Maythehorsebewithu (No5) is two-from-two with a chance of making that record something really special today.
With only a little more than three weeks to the $350,000 Mercedes Derby there is no clear picture. Perhaps we will know a little more after the $20,000 Mercedes Derby Prelude, in which Komplete Kaos (No1, R6) will attempt to carry clear topweight of 56kg. Her finishing efforts over 1600m lately have left no doubt she will appreciate the step to 2000m today. Zepheros (No4) has already had a start at 2000m, which will help enormously today. There is scope for an upset with David James (No 8) and Lord Romar (No10) capable of stepping up to the next level. Ma Victoire (No3) is the real boilover.
History tells you a horse cannot step from Class 2 to win in open company, but history is a poor guide in this instance - our open handicappers have never been so ordinary and So Lets (No14, R9) is definitely on the improve. The Matamata mare was a certainty beaten at Tauranga last start. She was bolting on the bend, but Lance O'Sullivan could not find an opening for her and she finished seventh. Glendara (No3) and Deimos (No9) would both take a huge amount of beating.
Emerald Dream (No2, R10) and Capebay (No1) are two smart types in the last. Emerald Dream will probably start favourite after her huge finishing effort for third when resuming at Tauranga, but Capebay has had two starts and might be just that share more seasoned if they run the race hard. The step to 1400m should assist Capebay.
Racing: Talented late starter looks like The Best Move at Ellerslie
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