Racing is all about weights and that multiplies by a factor of three on winter tracks.
Which is why current whiz-kid apprentice Chad Ormsby should be in for a huge day at Tauranga today.
Ormsby, in his first year of riding, is what every trainer looks for, particularly in winter - he is riding almost as well as most senior jockeys and he claims a 3kg allowance.
That is an almost irresistible force in conditions that are likely this afternoon.
Ormsby, not long turned 16, started his apprenticeship less than a year ago with Grant Searle at Levin.
Wanting to ride your first winner is the goal of any budding apprentice, but Ormsby had wider ambitions - before he was barely recognised he wanted to improve himself and asked to be transferred to where he knew he would develop, under the tutelage of former champion jockey Lance O'Sullivan.
"He's a natural," said O'Sullivan when asked yesterday for an opinion of Ormsby, who rode a double for the stable at Ruakaka on Wednesday.
"You've only got to see him sit on a horse to realise it. Michael Walker was a natural sitting on a horse's back and Chad is the same.
"I watched him at the track the other morning, the horse he was on suddenly swung around. Most kids would have been thrown off. His seat on the horse didn't change.
"He sits low and lets it happen for him. That's nothing to do with me - he could sit on them before he came to me."
But O'Sullivan does rev Ormsby up where it is needed, tactically.
"We talk often about riding. Not the good rides, the bad ones that can be improved.
"After Chad rode the double on Wednesday I said to him that he was riding too loose, to get hold of their heads more.
"He's got a fair way to go, but he's being moulded. He's learning what will help a horse and what will hinder it."
Ormsby said yesterday he wanted to come north for the stronger racing scene because he liked a challenge. He's going to get that today, but he's on the cattle that can land him four winners if things fall into place.
His 3kg will greatly assist Tom O'Forbes (No 1, R1), Twinkling (No 1, R3), Veil (No 3, R8) and Go Thenaki (No 1, R9).
Tom O'Forbes has not claimed an allowance this campaign and has run solid races for third to Ala Moana and fourth to Marsanne last start. This field is probably not quite as strong as the last opposition line-up and although inside draws will not be the place to come from for the second half of today's programme, Tom O'Forbes should get away with the rails in the opening event.
Twinkling looked huge finishing powerfully to grab a stakes victory at Ellerslie last start and the talented 2-year-old filly will make the most of the apprentice claim trainers Royce Dowling and his daughter Linda Laing have opted for. I'm Insatiable (No 2) is very talented as shown by her Ellerslie debut victory, but the 2kg between them in today's conditions will go a long way towards swinging it Twinkling's way.
Veil comes into Race 8 well with just 53kg and she will need to be advantaged to hold out the likes of Marea (No 5) and Mandana (No 11), who looked exceptional in heavy ground from a handful of starts late last winter. Revolving multiple bets around this trio should be productive. If you need one more for your Pick6, look at Fire Song (No 4), whose wide draw will be an advantage.
Probably the best of Ormsby's rides is Go Thenaki, who looks terrifically well placed with 54.5kg. There was an air of authority about the way he won when resuming at Ellerslie, even allowing the check to stablemate Don't Ya Lovett and trainer Allan Sharrock says he's trained on famously. There are a couple of potential upsetters in the field, but the safe ones are Insan Itee (No 2), Baltaine (No 3) and Rat Tat (No 5).
Allan Sharrock has a chance to take Race 2 with Hautap Hunny (No 9). She has had one run back from a spell for a promising third on her home track at New Plymouth and handles heavy tracks very well. She has run in better class than almost all of her opposition.
Leigh Valley (No 4, R4) has extraordinary ability. Whether she can produce it in this afternoon's conditions to the same degree she disposed of the opposition when resuming at Te Awamutu remains to be seen. That was on her home track, which was to her advantage. If she manages the track, Leigh Valley will simply be too good. Coup Invercargill (No 1) and Anzaway (No 2) are talented.
Danz Star (No 1, R6) is the goods. Tim Carter has him very fit - which he'll need to be under 57kg today - and his size will help him. There is some real talent here in Vamperalla (No 4) and Samurai (No 3), but Danz Star can measure up.
Which leaves the $50,000 Carter Holt Cup. It is such a wonderfully competitive field that it's hardly a betting race, despite the fact it will hold more money than any race in New Zealand today.
It's extremely difficult to confidently separate Millnorm (No 2, R7) and All's Well (No4), then you have Ben Sparta (No 5), Tantalic (No 6) and the wonderful veteran King Keitel (No 1). Watch and enjoy and go easily.
Racing: Talented apprentice a dream for winter fields
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