"If he couldn't win he wouldn't be here."
That simple sentence from driver Peter Ferguson sums up the chances of comeback pacer Mi Muchacho in tonight's Auckland Cup.
The grey gelding is the surprise entry, having been sidelined since a disappointing performance at Alexandra Park in December.
That followed his expensive failure in the New Zealand Cup, a race for which he was warm favourite.
That was when the manure started to hit the fan for Mi Muchacho.
Last season's best 4-year-old made an instant impact in open class this season, returning a staggering staying performance to win fresh-up before downing the north's best pacers again in the North Shore City Stakes in October.
Then came that disastrous southern campaign. Mi Muchacho galloped twice in the cup trial and again in the cup when challenged by Mainland Banner at the 180m mark.
He returned north to race lengths below his best again and had trainer Richard Anderson fearing the 5-year-old may have a pelvic injury.
At that stage he was expected to miss the rest of the season but salvation came in the form of two equine chiropractors who pinpointed soreness in Mi Muchacho's neck.
Treatment has changed him from a cranky pacer who often paced roughly to a relaxed freegoer, thrilling his connections with his work.
"He feels better than ever," said Ferguson after driving Mi Muchacho in some searching workouts in the last fortnight. "He is a lot happier and his work has been really good."
Ferguson, who has already won an Auckland Cup with Kates First, realises the enormity of the task facing Mi Muchacho without a race under his belt for nearly three months.
"One thing in his favour, he is a very good-winded horse," said Ferguson. "And the other thing he is a great horse when he is right. He beat a lot of the top horses fresh-up this season and while this will be tougher he is up to it."
TAB bookies don't need any reminding of Mi Muchacho's ability after he won a series of races as a hot favourite last year so have kept him safe, not budging outside the $9 mark for him this week.
He does also have the advantage of being a good standing start horse with the draw to work forward to his favoured pacemaking role.
Whether he is fit enough to win remains the question.
Racing: Surprise entry could easily steal show
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