Racing: Surprise call by top Cup trainer

MELBOURNE - Legendary trainer Bart Cummings has picked out three to consider in today's Melbourne Cup in opposition to his surprise pair, Strasbourg and Kamsky.

Chasing an incredible 12th Melbourne Cup win, Cummings rated his chances last week of having a runner as slim, but events on Saturday changed that.

Strasbourg won the Saab Quality and Kamsky sneaked into the field as others fell by the wayside.

Cummings thinks Makybe Diva, Railings and Leica Falcon are the horses to beat.

His opinion about Makybe Diva being weighted to win the race has been well recorded.

He thinks that with her outstanding record she should have got a few more kilograms than 58kg.

"The other horse going really well is Railings. He copped a penalty for the Caulfield Cup but he's going well enough to handle that."

He also thinks Leica Falcon will be a threat.

"Leica Falcon is a good type with no weight. He's a lovely, long strider and if he is fit enough I'm sure he is going to take some holding out at the finish," Cummings said.

He does not rule out his pair either. Their entries into the field have been well-timed.

"Strasbourg has a light weight and will be fit on the day. You can never rule out a horse with no weight coming in with winning form.

"We had the Cup in mind for Kamsky after he finished third in the South Australian Derby in May. He's come along steadily and I do think he will run the distance."

Assessments of the field are blurred in the hype surrounding Makybe Diva, the people's champion in Australia.

Her connections are insisting she will not start unless the track is softer than it was for racing on Saturday when most thought the surface was good.

She has 58kg, which is generous considering the imposts champions of the past like Phar Lap and Rising Fast had to lump.

The weight scale is more compressed these days and it is doubtful she would have started had she been given more weight.

Still, no mare has carried that much to win the Melbourne Cup.

There is no doubting her form. She has been the star of the spring and her win in the Cox Plate was breathtaking.

But her preparation was done with that race, a 2040m weight-for-age feature, in mind. It will be some training feat if she wins a third Melbourne Cup.

The attention has gone off Railings, but only because of Makybe fever.

His win in the Caulfield Cup was superb, the run of a true stayer.

He has copped penalties because of his wins in the Metropolitan Handicap and at Caulfield but, being a strong type by Zabeel, he looks more than capable of coping with 54kg.

However, he is only giving Makybe Diva 4kg.

History is also against him - no horse has won the Metropolitan-Caulfield-Melbourne treble in the same season.

Countering that is he is prepared by John Hawkes, one of Australia's best conditioners.

Vinnie Roe and Eye Popper are the overseas horses to consider.

Dermot Weld has Vinnie Roe looking sensationally well before his final career run before going to stud.

He and Makybe Diva were the class horses who fought out last year's Cup finish and, if Pat Smullen can ride him a touch less adventurously, he must be a huge chance.

The same goes for Eye Popper.

Jockey Shinji Fujita was roundly criticised for positioning the horse three and four wide for the entire Caulfield Cup, yet they were only downed by Railings in the last two strides.

The horse's connections seemed surprised by the fuss about the ride, but if they adopt more orthodox tactics tomorrow Eye Popper has to be a major threat.

Cummings sums up the case for Leica Falcon well.

Many good judges consider him to be the weight horse. His inexperience has to be considered - he wobbled around the Caulfield turn before charging home for fifth in the Cup.

Xcellent has drifted out to $20 and more for the Cup after his Cox Plate failure.

His preparation is even more unorthodox than Makybe Diva because he has had fewer runs, but Mike Moroney has always maintained he does not need much racing to bring him to a peak.

Maturity could be a problem, but there is no doubting his ability.

If he has a trouble-free run, his powerful late sprint could land New Zealand a victory to cherish.

Bazelle is just coming to hand at the right time, but the draw is against her.

Mr Celebrity is talented. His experience is questionable, but he has to be considered as a realistic hope. Greys Inn looks the best of the rest.

In the final analysis, the finish of Railings in the Caulfield Cup lingers in the memory.

He's had the right preparation and is selected to win from Vinnie Roe and Makybe Diva with Xcellent and Eye Popper right up there.

- NZPA