"He has a good horse's weight but he has earned it so I won't say he can't win," Rogerson told the Herald.
"But he tends to be better with two or three runs under his belt and this is only his second start back.
"The heavy track also makes it hard when you giving some nice horses 7kgs but he loves Awapuni so he is still going to give them a sight."
The race is a highlight of a quiet domestic day with Awapuni and Matamata to be run on wet tracks and certain to be hit by scratchings.
One of those is almost certain to be exciting Tauranga galloper Gold Watch who 90-year-old trainer Cliff Goss will allow to miss Matamata even though he was red hot for the feature race.
"I don't want to start him fresh-up on a heavy track so we will probably go to Te Rapa next Friday instead," says Goss of the early favourite for the Couplands Mile.
The track won't be the concern for Probabeel and fellow Kiwi star The Chosen One at Sandown where they find themselves in a rare five-horse A$1 million race in the Underwood, but up against Cox Plate favourite Zaaki.
The former UK galloper has been so crushing during his Queensland winter campaign and then when returning in Sydney three weeks ago he is a $1.25 favourite, and it will take something world class from the New Zealand pair to beat him.
The Chosen One's path for the spring is more or less set in stone, returning to the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups he placed in last season so today should be a simple chance to get a big payday by running on well.
Probabeel though is the clear second favourite for the Underwood and if she can push Zaaki close, or less likely beat him, then she deserves a crack at the Cox Plate. But if he clearly outshines her then a race like the A$1 million Empire Rose a week after the Cox Plate may start to make more sense.
Exciting Waikato galloper Elephant is favoured to win his A$200,000 Sandown race, dropping back from weight-for-age in the Feehan last start, but the hottest Kiwi favourite of the Australian day is Entriviere in her A$400,000 sprint in Sydney.
The speed freak steps up to 1400m and drawn wide at Rosehill will need some James McDonald magic and tempo in the race, although her case has been aided by three scratchings reducing the field to nine.