KEY POINTS:
Superalloy goes into Race 6 at Ellerslie today with two unplaced runs beside his name, but it would be a mistake to view those as significant.
He was a long way from being suited two starts back in November and last start, when things looked well placed for him, Tasha Collett's saddle slipped forward and Superalloy's chances went out the back door.
With Collett ripping another 4kg off his back, Superalloy is provided with a get-square opportunity today. If the rain that's predicted for tonight arrives he is one that won't be inconvenienced.
China White (No 1, R 1) looked close to a win when he finished fourth on debut at Avondale and he followed that up with a fast-closing second to Ambitious Mascot at Ellerslie. There are some promising types in this opener, but he will take some beating.
Difficult to see how they can beat Crossyourheart (No 1, R 2). She has looked exceptional, winning her only two races so far and has the added advantage this time of a Tasha Collett 4kg claim. Jacob (No 2) covered too much extra ground here on January 1.
There have been some impressive maiden winners in the past three months and Stolen Thunder (No 2, R 3) has probably been the most stylish. He's a 3-year-old going places and it will take a smart effort to keep him from making it two straight.
Cagney (No 2, R 4) made his Ellerslie debut in a field that included winners and looked smart finishing third then being relegated to fourth. He should have learned from that and against a field of maidens he makes a lot of appeal today. Debut runner Black Tracker (No 6) could be an interesting one for trifectas.
Don't even think about the 58kg Giovanni (No 1, R 5) is handicapped on - it is only 1kg above what is essentially the minimum. He was beaten only three-quarters of a length by a smart type in Avaroadi when resuming at New Plymouth last start and the track was probably wetter than he prefers. He'll give a good sight today. Chimalis (No 4) will find this R83 a whole lot easier than the Newmarket Handicap won by Kay's Awake. She was a stylish winner before then, albeit in an easier field than this.
Race 7, the $25,000 1600m, could be a bit of a trap race. If the track comes up in reasonable order - and who knows the way the weather's been - Kristov (No 1) is the horse to beat, but we all know he loses several lengths with each grade down from good. Then you have the likes of Pentane (No 2) and Magnetism (No 4), both very capable, but difficult to assess here and Taalisman (No 6). Probably the most difficult race on the card and the safest way to go might be each way on High Octane (No 9), who is stepping up in class, but drops from 58kg to 53kg and can handle moisture in the ground. And of course Tachus (No 11) is very smart. Tough, be wary.
A horse's first middle distance, particularly a green horse, is a tough race. But Sir Fortriss (No 2, R 8) is so talented you would not say it was beyond him. His last-to-first win here on January 1 stamped him as a horse of the future, the only query being an off track. He is such a big, long-striding type that a shifting track might upset his confidence. Conditions play a big part in assessing this race. The Myth (No 10) finally got some luck and showed what she can do and Twopaddocks (No 8) is only a tick away from a decent win.
Significant weight relief is a huge factor in racing and the 4kg relief Tasha Collett gives Mirkola Lass (No 1, R 9) cannot help but be a consideration. There are a lot of horse lengths' difference between 58.5kg and 54.5kg. Ntamack's (No 2) connections deserve a winning turn.
Ististar (No 7, R 10) didn't get a lot of luck on New Year's Day and looks each-way value in the last. Prized Touch (No 3) won nicely when resuming and should be improved and Anzaway (No 11) is not the worst value runner for the trifecta, particularly if there is a bit of give in the track.
With Opie Bosson aboard, Bonjour (No 6, R 8) could be the value runner to upset some of the guns at Awapuni. He was a costly failure last start, but we all know he's much better than that.
Even if they get some rain at Manawatu, Kingsinga (No 6, R 7) is going to go close in the Marton Cup. On an easy surface Luckshan (No 7) is also right in the race. Even with 58kg a big weight for a mare, Everswindell (No 1, R 5) will be difficult to contain. She is dropping back from group two grade to a R92 and her run in the Rich Hill Mile at Ellerslie was an eye-catcher.
