KEY POINTS:
Evaluating any horserace comes down to an equation.
How you assess Seachange's chances in tomorrow's $250,000 First Sovereign Trust Telegraph depends on which balance of equations you use.
You've got weight - in this case a hefty 58.5kg.
Then you've got fitness, barrier draw, depth of opposition and finally, the one that almost certainly counts the most - class.
Take the weight first. In last year's Telegraph Seachange finished second, beaten 1.5 lengths, by Darci Brahma carrying 55.5kg.
Yes, 3kg is a significant increase, but there is no question that with earnings of $655,501 in the past year the outstanding Cambridge mare has earned her handicap.
Some, including many of the connections of her rivals, say she's well in.
That's a separate argument.
Two things make you believe the weight may not be the issue. First, Darci Brahma produced almost a career-best performance to win last year's Telegraph, mounting a final sprint that was almost frightening.
Seachange is a streetfighter that likes to eyeball horses and defy them to get past her. Darci Brahma swished by so fast last year you couldn't have beaten him on a motorbike. It's the best way to beat Seachange.
You could make a case that she might have gone close to beating the rest last year with 58.5kg.
If you take into account that she is stronger now - she certainly looked that way at the Paeroa trials when she won - then you get close to the point where you can leave the weight issue behind.
Take fitness. Trainer Ralph Manning has always said Seachange is one of the most gross horses he's has anything to do with.
Most horses like that take at least one, sometimes two, races to start finding form.
Yet with a very tough training schedule - something Seachange not only copes with but needs - the mare has an outstanding record when fresh.
In four fresh-up performances the only time she's been beaten was when Darci Brahma topped her off last year.
The No 3 barrier draw does not come into play. Seachange clears the barriers quickly which should prevent outside horses coming across and putting her in a pocket.
The depth of the opposition? Well, there are certainly no Darci Brahmas.
Kay's Awake finished third, 1.25 lengths behind Seachange last year carrying 53kg and this time has 55kg to carry, so she meets the favourite only 1kg better.
Imananabaa and Brianna, stablemates who finished 1-3 in the Railway, are dangers on 54kg and 52kg and Accardo (52kg), fourth in the Railway with little luck, are right in the race. But can they get past the best mare we've seen since Sunline?
There is plenty of evidence to suggest the weight can be carried successfully.
In 2003 Tit For Taat carried the same 58.5kg to win on a 50kg minimum weight. The minimum this time is 51kg. Courier Bay won with 58kg on a 47kg minimum in 1988.
The racing scenario should be Seachange in the first three across the junction and on to the course proper with Gavin McKeon starting to wind up that long, sustained sprint.
You can see her being a couple of lengths in front halfway down the running, ears back in defiance.
The last 150m is the unknown territory, but there is an absolute certainty - sheer class.
The question is whether it can carry her to the line under 58.5kg when "chargers" like Brianna, Accardo and Imananabaa arrive.
With Seachange's record in major races that have suited her and at the $3 on offer, you'd rather be betting on her than against her from the 200m.
* EQUATIONS
Seachange faces a massive task under 58.5kg in the big sprint, but she will give it one big shake.
It took a remarkable performance by Darci Brahma to beat her in this race last year.
Seachange's appearance and performance at the recent Paeroa barrier trials leave little doubt she has strengthened yet again.
She has been beaten only once when fresh from a spell - by Darci Brahma last year.
