We will see either sheer class or real grit in the big go at Tauranga tomorrow.
It will either be the galloping talent of the likes of All's Well and Ben Sparta or the ability in the mud of Millnorm and Tantalic that wins the $50,000 Carter Holt Harvey Packaging Cup.
Galloping style v rugged stamina.
The Tauranga track was just on heavy yesterday. Rain is forecast from this afternoon and continuing through tomorrow.
If that eventuates, the surface will be extremely heavy, but at least it will be loose.
That's Millnorm territory. Also Tantalic's.
But arguing with that is the stats of All's Well, who in 16 career starts has been beaten only twice on any sort of rain-affected footing. His runaway wins at Ellerslie at his last two starts leave little doubt he can manage the worst of conditions.
For a winter handicap you cannot draw better than Millnorm, Tantalic, All's Well, Ben Sparta and the remarkable veteran King Keitel going at it. This will be some race.
In the predicted conditions it will be gladiatorial, and that worries Davina Waddell, trainer of All's Well, not at all.
She is relying on the knowledge that she has never had the multi-talented All's Well in better condition.
"Honestly, I know I said it last week, but I couldn't be happier with him.
"I knew he'd come through last week's winning run well when he pulled a carrot out of my pocket in the paddock this morning. I had it hidden there. Next thing I felt this nose in my pocket.
"He's a very reserved horse - if he was human he'd be a bookworm - so when he gets up to those cheeky little tricks you know he's right on his game."
Remarkably for a horse that can handle firm footing, All's Well is just as comfortable on any type of winter surface and Waddell is not sweating over what the track will provide.
"For him I don't care whether it's loose or puggy. The only thing is that loose footing would better suit the likes of Millnorm and Tantalic."
She is also not concerned about whether All's Well settles in the lead or behind the pace.
"If nothing else wants to lead he can take it up and I won't be worried, provided he's not pushed to get there."
Millnorm's co-trainer, Richard Collett, is equally satisfied with his horse going into the race he won two years ago.
"The year he won the footing was loose and wet. Last year it was very puggy, which he doesn't like, plus I wasn't as happy with his preparation last year."
Collett said Millnorm was at his best when it rained on the day, which is almost certainly going to be the case here.
Millnorm was stunning winning the Cornwall Handicap at Ellerslie last start. He joined the leaders early in the run home and produced an astonishing sprint in hugely testing conditions to win by nearly six lengths.
Collett rates his biggest danger to be Tantalic, the horse Millnorm ran away from in the Cornwall - and if he's right he may not have too many dangers. Tantalic meets Millnorm 1kg better off, but there is no chance 1kg would have seen them even close at Ellerslie last start.
There was at least 3kg between them that day.
For all that, Tantalic has also won on the Tauranga track - always a big plus - and very loose conditions should suit him slightly better than the Ellerslie footing on Cornwall day.
Ben Sparta, yet another course winner, has not looked like beating All's Well in his last two runs, but he has fought bravely.
He was giving All's Well weight on both occasions - 2kg two starts back - and receives weight from him this time.
Tauranga's $50,000 Cup
Probably the best handicap field of the winter has accepted.
All's Well and Millnorm head what should be a great contest between sheer class and an ability to handle the mud.
Rising 11-year-old King Keitel is coming off a dramatic Te Rapa win in an attempt to carry 58kg topweight.
Racing: Style v stamina in the mud
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