Officially, the footing yesterday came back from a heavy 11 to a heavy 10 and if the predicted showers eventuate it will either remain where it is or go back out to a heavy 11.
Storming the Tower is a giant of a stayer and is unlikely to be worried by the 55kg.
Picking winners out of major staying races in wet ground at Rotorua is never easy, but an each-way flirt with a rock solid veteran stayer like this is as good as you can do it.
The runner best off in the weights is Opaki-trained Trisha Lea. Last week, at Trentham, she chased El Luchador home, 5.3 lengths behind. This time she drops back 1kg to 54kg and El Luchador goes up 2kg to 57.5kg.
Trisha Lea has been in stirling form (11122) and if she handles the Rotorua footing better than the hugely testing Trentham last week she could be difficult to beat.
The ability to plough through wet footing is every bit as valuable as sheer talent in these types of races and El Luchador will manage it no matter how debilitating. He hasn't raced at Rotorua and while not definitive, it can be an advantage.
Major Tom is going for four straight and is facing by far his toughest test. For a horse only one start out of R75 he has plenty of weight with 56.5kg. Although he has a good record on the decent footing on his home track at Ruakaka, his heavy track starts are three starts for two wins and a placing.
Pacorus is unquestionably the best wet tracker in this field, but his latest form has been well below his best. He loomed at the 500m at Trentham last week, but only settled from the home turn into a distant fourth.
There are only seven acceptors for the R85 sprint, the Taumarunui & Districts RSA 1400m, but that does not make it an easy race to sort.
He's Cavalier could be dangerous at his level in the weights. The carded 57kg will go down to 53kg with Rebecca Scott in the saddle, taking him 6kg below the favourite
Ambitious Winner.
That is a huge difference given the likely conditions tomorrow.
