Racing: Stolen Dance set to quickstep field

Vavasour (orange cap) is strong enough to cope with second topweight of 59kg in the Waikato Cup today. Photo / Trish Dunell

Decorah’s 60kg topweight looks a bit frightening in the Waikato Cup. The danger horse is Delago’s Secret.

If anything like the $3 the TAB was offering around Stolen Dance on Final Field at Te Rapa is still on offer today it is good value.

You don't win seven from 11 without being headed for top class and everything Stolen Dance has shown has supported that theory. She races on her home track today and is capable of running sectionals on the speed so quickly that she will likely run most of her opposition off their feet in the Cal Isuzu Stakes, despite running for $100,000

Rasa Lila is very good and flashed home for second to Stolen Dance at Ellerslie last start and looks one of the main dangers again.

Passing Shot (No2, R1) is a good way to start the day - but only if the track is firm. He needs good footing and the lack of it is what beat him at Ellerslie the last time out. The firmer the track, the better his chance. Snapshot (No6) is unbeaten in four visits to the races and you have to respect that.

We have seen some stunning 2-year-old form already this season and Xiong Feng (No3, R2) has been among the best of them.

You have to like the way he finished off his winning debut at Ellerslie at his only appearance after looking certain to finish only second around the 200m. This is a very powerful line-up, but Xiong Feng has drawn the No 1 barrier and should take plenty of beating. Luck in running will play a big part even though the field is small. Majestic Champion (No2) also looked good winning on debut.

Race 3 is a very even and tricky affair. Aotearower (No10) looked good when resuming on this track last start, finishing strongly into second. The step from 1200m to 1400m should suit her well. Ruud Not To (No16) has a difficult barrier to contend with, but if Danielle Johnson can get her some sort of a run she should be somewhere around the money.

It took a top run by Tavy to pull back Thee Auld Floozie (No7, R4) at Avondale last start and Tavy was in a much faster lane out wide. She has drawn the rails barrier and should get the right run today. Victor Hugo (No3) is in the right sort of form to figure again. That Ellerslie win of Snow Secret (No4, R5) last start was no fluke. Admittedly she got every gap she went for in the entire race, but she had to come from near last to do it all. She stays in the same rating band and goes up 3kg, but that's unlikely to totally prevent her from figuring. Zaviera (No16), Castle Bee (No5) and Bergerac (No2) all having some appeal.

There has always been that feeling that Tavy (No11, R6) has been just a race or two from breaking through to the best company and her clear-cut Avondale win last start confirmed that. She faces a tougher field here, but she comes in with just 53kg on her back and that will suit perfectly. She should get the ideal passage from gate No 2. Close Up (No8) and Gustavo (No5) are dangers.

In a strange handicap race, Vavasour (No2, R7) has to be the appeal horse in the Waikato Cup. She won the Counties Cup last start with just 53kg and this time has to lump second topweight of 59kg, which is a tough assignment for a mare over 2400m. But she is physically strong and is even stronger at the end of her races. What beats her should win. Decorah (No1) is similarly classy, but the 60kg topweight looks a bit frightening. The danger horse is probably Delago's Secret (No6), who looks to be regaining form this preparation. This looks like his sort of race.

It may pay not to drop Southern Dancer (No10, R9) just yet for his Ellerslie failure last start. He did work to get handy early from a wide gate then got steadily pushed back through the field. This race and a handy barrier should suit him. Blue Flag (No13) is the likely improver.

One of the best maiden distance winners we've seen lately is Tavidar (No5, R2) at Awapuni. He demolished his Te Awamutu opposition and doesn't look to strike a particularly strong field in the Manawatu today.

Show The World (No5, R6) didn't quite come up to expectations last preparation, but his first-up second at Avondale was a beaut. He came from clear last off a slow speed and flew the last bit.