KEY POINTS:
Does anyone see the irony here?
That the possible first step towards the demise of steeplechasing in New Zealand should come right in the middle of an exciting series of steeplchases.
Or that if the death penalty is to be administered it will be delivered by the chairman
of NZ Thoroughbred Racing, Guy Sargent, who part owns Just A Swagger, one of the favourites for today's $60,000 Wellington Steeplechase, the most interesting weekend race on either side of the Tasman.
It's almost surreal that suddenly - and suddenly is the only word - there is deep uncertainty about the future of steeplechasing.
Jumps racing in this country has been underwritten for the last three years. The figure is thought to be around $300,000.
A report which will be tabled at a NZTR board meeting in Wellington on Monday will recommend sweeping changes to that underwriting.
The following Monday, Sargent and his CEO Paul Bittar will meet members of racing's jumping community at Taupo.
Jumps racing is perhaps fortunate that both Sargent and Bittar are personally keen on jumping.
Is it really possible we eventually won't see the Great Northern Steeplechase or the Grand National?
That's almost unthinkable.
Probably it won't happen.
Suggestions have been floated that the subsidies and support as it is at the moment be pulled away from lower to middle of the road steeplechasing and that prestige jumping races only remain on Saturday race cards.
The worry of course is where will the horses come from for those races if clubs are unable to programme unprofitable lower grade lead up races.
Sure, the betting figures are not great on lower grade steeplechase races to the point where attention needs to be given.
But then these days no one goes to club rugby either.
Get rid of club rugby and you get rid of the All Blacks.
That's not going to happen.
Trentham was probably built around its Wellington Cup, but New Zealand's two other feature tracks, Ellerslie and Riccarton, were as much structured around the Great Northern Steeplechase and Grand National Steeplechase as anything else.
The racing industry cannot survive on history alone, nor should the past be allowed to totally override common sense. But these are races that have enormous followings and a pulling power that is impossible to replicate when starting from scratch.
Do we really want to head our structure towards American racing, where each race - give or take 200m - is exactly the same as what you saw 30 minutes earlier.
If you don't believe that's boring take note of race attendances in the United States. On a per capita basis they're dreadful.
Jumping is not for everyone, but is our base so broad we can afford to lose a significant percentage of the personnel in that side of the game? No.
There will be plenty of heat generated before this issue is resolved.
But the smart bet will be that jumping at the top end will remain.
The challenge for New Zealand's administrators is to replicate the changes which seem to have totally revitalised the Victorian jumping scene.
Watch today's Wellington Steeplechase and afterwards say the Trentham card would have been the same without it.
