KEY POINTS:
Stephen Mckee rates Avancer the best male 3-year-old in his stable.
Asked what he thought could beat Avancer in today's $150,000 First Sovereign Trust Great Northern Guineas, McKee said: "Himself."
Like a lot of the opposition today, Avancer is having his first look at a race beyond 1600m and like his rivals needs to show he can learn to relax and settle mid-race to give himself every chance.
"Ability wise I think he's right up there with the best 3-year-olds and if this was a fast-run 1600m, I'd be reasonably confident he would go close to winning; .
"But he's got to show he's got a racing brain to make sure he sees out the 2100m."
McKee is thankful Avancer has been lucky with the barrier draw.
"At No 4 he's drawn the right gate to allow him to settle."
Avancer has had only five raceday starts and McKee also sees a potential danger in that.
"It's Boxing Day, a big crowd and he has to show he won't get too wound up before the race."
In winning at Avondale and Ellerslie recently, Avancer has produced stunning finishing runs and if he can relax sufficiently through today's race to allow him to do the same at the end of the 2100m he is going to prove difficult to hold out.
We got the perfect insight into the potential of Mission Critical when he had his very public gallop with Xcellent at Ellerslie last Thursday morning.
Okay, Xcellent worked in very relaxed mode and Mission Critical looked much keener by comparison, but it was still top work by the 3-year-old who is still at the improving stage.
He made ground nicely in a speed-dominated race in the Avondale Guineas won by topline Alamosa last start and is definitely looking to step up to this 2100m.
Like Avancer, he too has drawn perfectly at No 6, in a race where barrier draws should play a big part.
This is the second-tier of 3-year-olds looking to take that next step to horses like Alamosa, Rios, The Pooka and Pierre Joseph and as such the race is very even.
This and probably the next race over a middle distance will show us which of these are genuine Derby contenders for March. One of those could be Il Divo from John Sargent's stable.
He has had only three starts and there was plenty to admire about the way he powered to the finish to beat a 1600m 3-year-old field at Ellerslie last start.
That effort had the suggestion of stamina all over it and being by a Derby winner in Don Eduardo, Il Divo could be a staying type on the way through.
Three-year-olds can improve rapidly with each start from this time of year and Il Divo looks that type.
So does Six O'Clock News. He finished nearly six lengths off Alamosa in the Avondale Guineas, but the race was not run to suit.
He got back last and was forced to make his run wide to try and make ground on the leaders from the 500m.
The sprint up front went on just as he made that effort and it made it virtually impossible to take significant ground off the leaders.
It was a run that suggested he will be much better suited by today's staying race. Chris Johnson jumps on Six O'Clock News' back for the first time.
"I'm happy with his condition," said co-trainer Paddy Busuttin, who also has Top Echelon in the race.
"Top Echelon was a victim of the same scenario as Six O'Clock News in the Avondale Guineas then at Ellerslie last week he got caught wide throughout and had no chance.
"He's probably a notch below the best level of 3-year-olds, but he deserves his place in the field," he said.
Sircross showed he was a good stayer in the making when he sustained a big run from the back of the field to win the Guineas Trial here last week.
That puts him right in the race, along with the likes of Prince Kaapstad, Twoeezy, C'est La Guerre and Beauty Express.
