KEY POINTS:
Changeover is set to dominate New Zealand Cup betting when the market opens next week.
TAB harness racing bookmaker Steven Richardson suggests the champion pacer could be as short as $2.50 when the market for the November 13 thriller opens on Wednesday.
That comes just a month after
Richardson thought he would open Monkey King as the favourite.
His mind has obviously been swayed by the huge hype around Changeover, who just two weeks ago swept his way through the Australasian Breeders Crown.
"The fact he has now won something like 10 races on end, all as favourite, makes him hard to go past," said Richardson.
"He has been the horse who has got a lot of multi bets home recently and punters love him.
"While there is still room to move in the market, he will open favourite for sure."
That will make Changeover the first 4-year-old in fixed odds history to open Cup favourite without having raced outside his own age group.
In the last decade Christian Cullen was always short for the Cup but had raced the older horses even as a 3-year-old, while Mainland Banner won the Cup as a 4-year-old but was not among the favourites on opening.
With Changeover set to be around $2.50 in the first market, fans of other stars will have plenty of room to move.
Richardson says he is likely to open Baileys Dream around $6 after his stunning recent return in track record time at Rangiora.
And he has learned his lesson from last year.
"Flashing Red was a disaster for us in the Cup last year because we took him on and he started around $4. We will be keeping him a lot safer."
That suggests horses like Sly Flyin, Awesome Armbro, Classic Cullen and to a lesser extent Monkey King could provide good value.
And then Richardson faces the dual headaches of rating Mainland Banner and any Australian entries.
Mainland Banner has not raced since December and while reports suggest she is progressing well, she did not win an open class race last season.
The Equine Influenza outbreak in Australia means few, if any, Australian pacers will be able to come but dual Interdominion champion Blacks A Fake and in-form Smooth Cruza are both likely to be nominated and have to be included in the market.
* Richardson will be stepping up his coverage of lower-grade races from tomorrow night.
All one-win and faster races on a sole Friday night harness meeting at Addington or Alexandra Park will now attract fixed odds betting.
