It's rare that class alone does not decide a Derby result.
This afternoon is not likely to be one of those rare moments.
Zarzuela, Corporal Jones, Monaco Consul and Katie Lee stand out in the class stakes in a $2.2 million Telecom Derby at Ellerslie at 5.09pm.
If one of that quartet fails to take New Zealand's greatest classic it will probably not go into the record books as one of the iconic renewals of the race.
Fillies have a barren record in the New Zealand Derby, but Zarzuela could help to slightly change that. And she has Katie Lee as a back-up.
The 2400m question hangs over all but Victoria Derby winner Monaco Consul, who was so dominant at the end of the 2500m Melbourne Classic on October 31.
Zarzuela is one of them, but so are the remainder of the line-up.
The Mark Walker-trained filly has the Zabeel factor behind her for a stamina index, but even more importantly she has an impeccable formline - Guineas at Ellerslie, Waikato Guineas and Championship Stakes, while all through battle fitness at a level below what she will strip with at Ellerslie this afternoon.
Yes, the wide barrier is an issue and if luck goes against her could prove extremely important, but there are times when you have to forget such factors and concentrate on the class, which can overcome so much.
Zarzuela for the sheer class factor ahead of Monaco Consul and Corporal Jones, with little separating them and Katie Lee's sheer guts pushing her into the finish. Provided she gets a decent trip, Katie Lee is likely to loom up at some point of the home straight and it will be a matter of whether she can sustain that momentum through 2400m.
The fields all day are great betting races without too many standout propositions.
Race 1 is one of those races that presents a puzzle. Liquore (No5) and The Goddaughter (No4) are last-start maiden winners that should go on. We'll give the slight nod to Liquore because she has won over 2100m, where The Goddaughter has yet to race beyond 1600m. And that Liquore is a year older at four. Not an easy field.
Keffiya (No5, R2) will be the first ride in New Zealand of Hong Kong-based Australian jockey Zac Purton. She got racing too fiercely and couldn't finish off when beaten favourite at Ellerslie last start and is likely to be much more competitive this time. The No 2 barrier should come in handy. It took a very good horse in Spiro to get the better of The Pooka (No1) in the last stride at New Plymouth last start. The Pooka probably isn't quite the horse he was as a 3-year-old, but his last start effort was good enough to suggest he can be competitive here again.
A handy value bet is Cross Roads (No4, R3) whose form is a lot better than it reads on paper. Three starts back he was just one length from Chettak in a strong handicap field at Ellerslie. On the same track last start he was blocked for room when attempting to improve along the rail in the home straight. If you take a line of comparison between the Chettak field and this one it puts Cross Roads right in the race, particularly from a handy draw. Natsinga (No8) is an improver and Southerner Zabene (No3) will be interesting.
Tip The Wink (No1, R4) has a fine record - four wins and five seconds from just 14 starts. She has 57kg topweight to carry here, but has been in great form. It took a good mare in Saheel to beat her last time and Saheel would start a warm favourite in this race. She has speed and a good kick and Opie Bosson to guide her. That's a powerful combination. De Los Angeles (No5) is a hope in a race that contains plenty of chances.
There is a real sense that Attalla (No5, R6) is on the verge of winning. She chased eventual Telegraph winner Vonusti home at Tauranga in early January then failed inexplicably at Riccarton before chasing speed machine Coup Align home over 1200m at Wingatui. She is much more comfortable over today's 1400m than 1200m and with Zac Purton to guide her makes a lot of appeal. Lots of class here, though, and the likes of Rudd Van Slaats (No1), Irish Colleen (No2) and Nadege (No4) will be hard to contain.
The fact that Race 7 for the 3-year-olds is a handicap possibly gives up- and-comer Fazzle (No2) a slight edge over the group one-winning Eileen Dubh (No1). The conditions mean Eileen Dubh has to give Fazzled 3kg, which should prove important. Things went wrong from a wide barrier for Fazzle last start and her second was first class. Interesting race.
Pinot Girl (No2, R9) jumps 2kg for her win at Te Rapa last start and although she could not have got an easier rails run that day, an extra 2kg would not have stopped her. From a slightly more awkward draw this time she will need more luck, but looks a stayer on the way through to good things. If Pinot Girl misses, the gold could go to any one of six or seven.
The females are going to take some stopping in the last - Miss Judged (No10, R10), Miss Krisdel (No9) and Misspro O'Reilly (No 11) all look good chances. We'll give a slight edge to Miss Judged because she has drawn the better gate of the trio (No1) at the 1400m and the fact that she finds the line strongly in her races.
Racing: Star fillies could make their mark on New Zealand's greatest classic
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