This is not arrogance, it's plain common sense.
Trevor McKee has been working Sunline harder than usual in training because he does not expect her to have to work too hard to win the $A250,000 Turnbull Stakes today at Flemington.
You could say it's a contingency plan in case Sunline gets away with an easy win.
This is when you know things are going well leading up to a return bout with the $A2 million Cox Plate.
Sunline will not meet her Cox arch rivals Shogun Lodge and Tie The Knot until the big race next start and today faces a field barely of that quality.
Underwood Stakes winner Oliver Twist is there with Caulfield Cup favourite Kaapstad Way, but neither could be considered Cox Plate material at this stage.
Another Kiwi, Hill Of Grace, is in with a shout at the step up to 2000m after her top fourth to Oliver Twist last start.
But once again, only total misadventure could bring Sunline undone.
The champion mare will be even sharper than when she won the Feehan Stakes.
How to get money off the race? Only with the trifecta, perhaps throwing in Sarwatch with the above three.
At Ellerslie the $60,000 Lindauer Guineas should be a great race between the stablemates Singalong (No6, R6) and Ballina Kate (No7) with a couple of likely sorts in Cousteau (No1) and La Bella Dama (No8) thrown in.
How the track is riding might be the key to the Guineas. Singalong will get back and if the pattern by that stage is for front runners, she may have a problem picking up Ballina Kate, who is likely to be four or five lengths ahead on the corner. If back runners have been getting home strongly, Singalong's finishing burst to win at Hastings will spring strongly to mind.
Cousteau would not want to get as far back as he did when fifth in the Hawkes Bay Guineas, but from his handier draw this time that is not likely. He is more of a dour staying type than the fillies.
Forgive Likely Story (No9, R7) his failure last start. He resented being jammed between horses at the 600m and had too much to do when finally clear. He is a stayer of considerable promise. Nikisha (No10) is a quality mare on the way through who looks the one to beat.
Call Me Zeus (No1, R10) is another worth trying again. His last-start Hastings failure was uncharacteristic.This is a great betting race. Lyn's Legacy (No8) can produce a big run fresh, King Keitel (No2) is in great form and don't be surprised if Drama Queen (No4) does something flash when resuming.
Tristate (No3, R2) is a breath away from winning. He was run down late here last start and this looks likely to suit him. Mr Kudos (No2) and Home Grown (No1) are trifecta chances.
Sharif (No5, R4) finally gets a track which is not too boggy. He has ability and his apprentice allowance will do his chances no harm. Look to Biennale (No2) and Greatthings Happen (No1) to figure.
The sprint is interesting. Zayyad (No1, R5) is all class and can handle his 57kg topweight fresh, while Adonis (No2) is likely to start favourite. The real danger might be Mr Emperor (No7). He is underrated and from his inside barrier can get a good sit towards the back of the field to wait for his smart finishing burst.
It may be a big ask for Rebel (No1, R9) to produce at 1600m fresh from a lengthy spell, but he has the class if he's even close to fitness. His Cambridge trials win last week suggests he can go close. Native Chief (No2) and Bluebird The Word (No3) are major improvers.
Bails (No3, R1) at Masterton was impressive winning at the Taupo trials and can go close in his debut.
Racing: Star being trained hard in case of easy victories
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