KEY POINTS:
Trainer Geoff Small believes his champion pacer Changeover can get beaten in tonight's $35,000 Kumeu Founders Cup at Alexandra Park.
But that prospect doesn't faze him too much because he believes stablemate Awesome Armbro could be the horse to do it.
The Small pair should start the two favourites tonight after dominating the first open class race of the Alexandra Park season, the Spring Cup, two weeks ago.
On that occasion Changeover jumped straight to the front and destroyed the national 2200m record, confirming his position as next month's New Zealand Cup favourite.
But almost as impressive was Awesome Armbro, who missed away and settled 10 lengths from his stablemate yet stormed into second.
Awesome Armbro's performance outshone that of Auckland Cup winner Gotta Go Cullen and was at least as good as superstar Monkey King, who also missed away.
Tonight Awesome Armbro gets a 10m start over those big names as he is the only horse off the 10m mark over the 2700m.
If, and it is a big if, Awesome Armbro can take advantage of that 10m headstart and settle in front of the glamour backmarkers, Small is adamant he can win.
"The way he worked on Monday morning he will be very hard to beat," said Small.
"Deep down I think Changeover is a better horse and the better stayer and he might just come out and blow them away. But small fields can be very tactical and it could make for an interesting race."
Small drove Changeover in a serious workout on Monday and said he struggled to close on Awesome Armbro.
"I think he [Awesome Armbro] is getting very close to being in the zone so if he ends up a few lengths in front of Changeover he will be hard to catch."
While their handicaps suggest Awesome Armbro will do just that, standing start manners hold the key.
Changeover is almost perfect from a standing start while Awesome Armbro is no better than 50-50 to go away cleanly.
He will have to stand wider on the track because he is unruly so Awesome Armbro will only have to miss the start by a few strides and Changeover, and possibly a few other of the backmarkers, could pass him on his inside.
Even allowing for their recent workout and handicaps, Changeover will still start a hot favourite and deservedly so.
He looks the most complete open class pacer in the country and even if he has to sit off the pace tonight has the strength to get home over the top of his rivals.
Just how well he can sprint coming from back in the field - a tactic rarely attempted with the stallion - could be one of the defining points of the season.
The Steven Reid speedsters Monkey King and Baileys Dream are obvious improvers from the Spring Cup and both should be suited by the extra distance tonight.
That leaves Gotta Go Cullen as the enigma for punters.
He was average by his very high standards in the Spring Cup, suggesting he is still on the way back to peak fitness.
His trainer-driver Tony Herlihy is pleased with the big horse's progress since the Spring Cup but is not over confident of beating the Small pair.
"They were both very good last time out and I think they may be more forward than us at this time," he admitted.
* One of the greats of Alexandra Park racing returns to the track tonight.
Veteran iron horse Sly Flyin will lead out the field for the Kumeu Founders Cup, a race he won in 2006.
Sly Flyin was retired earlier this year after finally losing a career-long battle with injury.
But his massive heart still enabled him to win 29 races and over $900,000 in stakes, beating heroes like Elsu, Flashing Red and Just An Excuse along the way.
Latest odds
Last night's TAB fixed-odds for the Kumeu Cup:
$1.65 Changeover; $3.20 Awesome Armbro; $6.00 Monkey King; $11.00 Gotta Go Cullen; $13.00 Baileys Dream; $31.00 Retail Therapy.
