Otaki trainer Howie Mathews feels like a winner before they even jump in the New Zealand Oaks at Trentham today.
He doesn't care that his first runner in the race, Star Crossed, is such a despised $100 fixed-odds outsider with TAB bookies that even the emergencies are paying less.
For Mathews, half the battle was just sneaking his one-race hopeful into the star-studded race.
When Star Crossed battled into fifth behind El Bulli at Woodville a fortnight back, Mathews and his wife and co-trainer Lorraine, were convinced their months of Oaks preparation had been lost with it.
With so much winning form around in the fillies' ranks this season, the Mathews were certain Star Crossed needed to run in the first three that day to seal an Oaks start.
But one by one in the final few days those above the Cape Cross filly dropped out, leaving Star Crossed now more than just a runner's chance in a race Mathews believes she was born to run.
"She's out of a mare who didn't win anything under eight furlongs and this is the race we always wanted her in," said Mathews.
"I was initially disappointed with her run at Woodville but after we got home and watched the tape I've changed my tune.
"She raced a little bit fierce in the first 200m and got bumped coming out of the straight.
"But she battled well in her first run over 2000m - she was one of the only ones still plodding on at the line."
Star Crossed jumps from three today and Mathews will be sending strict instructions to rider Brian Hibberd to milk the inside gate to the limit.
"Most of the Oaks favourites have drawn off the track and face the real danger of being trapped wide leaving the straight.
"No one wants to come up the straight facing the breeze in a three-year-old fillies race over 2400m," said Mathews.
"From that gate we should be in the first four keeping out of trouble. I've seen some backwash in the Oaks with 600m to go so I don't want to be one of those runners coming back with an excuse."
Rival rider Leith Innes is confident Sahara Flight, another 11th-hour Oaks entry, won't be going backwards when it counts today.
She beat a weak maiden field over 2170m for Innes in her last start at Tauranga.
The next best are Elena, who scored over 2147m in the south and Myladys, who won a 2100m maiden at Ruakaka.
Innes had the chance to ride the Lance O'Sullivan trained Belle Of Marju, who won plenty of Oaks fans with a fighting last-start win for him at Thames over 2000m.
But the country's leading rider was more impressed with the Murray Baker-trained Sahara Flight.
"Sahara Flight is a nice big scopey filly and I feel that the 2400m is really going to suit her," said Innes, who has shaken off the flu that prevented him from riding at Hastings on Thursday.
Belle Of Marju is not that big but what she lacks in height she makes up for with her big heart.
Sahara Flight jumps from the outside gate in the 18-horse field, but Innes is not phased by the alley.
"Her natural tendency is to roll forward so hopefully we can slot in midfield somewhere."
Racing: Stable a winner just making the Oaks
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