KEY POINTS:
A million-dollar Pick6 is a daunting thought.
But in reality, a Pick6 for a squillion is no tougher than one for $25,000.
This guide may help.
Leg 1
Two starts ago Jowka was beaten a short head by Beersheba Knight in a R90 1600m at Manawatu. That's great form for a race like this. Subsequently he was middle and wide in a strong field at Trentham and was not a chance late in the race. He should be better placed in the running this time and look for a big late finish.
Valhalla will forever be known as the horse that won the $100,000 Dunstan Final and lost it in the inquiry room. That stamps him a dour type stayer, but he has a decent record in shorter races and should be suited at 1800m. He represents real class and his consistent form makes him the horse to beat.
Other chances include Buckle Your Belt, Twoeezy and Castlebar who has the home-track advantage.
Verdict: Either anchor Jowka and Valhalla, or go wider with the chances mentioned to get over the first leg.
Leg 2
This is one of the two very tough legs. Two-year-old races are often clearcut, but there is so much emerging talent here who have had only one or two starts.
The obvious ones are Bear Heart, Shuttleworth and Our Saint. Bear Heart bolted in on debut then went okay for third at Riccarton and was spelled. Trainer Shaune Ritchie was hoping for a track that had give in it, but one which allowed the inside barrier to come into play - he looks to have his wish. Bear Heart has been flying in training and will take beating. Shuttleworth was strong on the line in his winning debut at Woodville and looks a horse of
talent. The wide barrier will be no help, but don't leave him off your ticket. This is stronger than the maiden juvenile Our Saint won at Trentham over the carnival, but there was a lot to like about the way he worked away from them late. He is on his home track.
Sacremento hasn't won a race, but he's produced some eye-catching runs.
Verdict: Go as wide as your budget allows here.
Leg 3
It should be the top of the handicap here. Richard Beymer, Our Umaga and Jacowils are all very smart and Brianna is so much better than her form reads on paper.
The beauty with the first three mentioned is that unlike most topline sprinters, all three are just as good when there is rain around - if the track cuts up they will still be suited. Richard Beymer has been in great form, winning three of his last five, the only glitch was when he got no sort of run in the Railway at Ellerslie. Take all three of the above and include Brianna.
Verdict: Class wins the bigger sprints. Unless the early races show the track to be cutting out badly, stay with the top three plus Brianna.
Leg 4
If you wind back to the image of Vickezzchardonnay in the Wellington Cup last start you might even consider the Cambridge mare a possible anchor here. Not everything went right at Trentham and she was still making ground on the leaders in fourth place in the final 100m. Vickezzchardonnay is smallish and the key here is the minimum weight of 53kg, which will suit perfectly
Heracles is a huge chance and so is Spectacular Icon. Heracles failed by only a long neck to pick up Spectacular Icon at Te Rapa last start and meets that horse 1.5kg better off here, more than enough to swing that around under normal circumstances.
Dezinga and Prince Kaapstad are the enigmas. Dezigna was best known for his exploits on firm footing until be blew them away in the group one Captain Cook Stakes in the spring on a Trentham track so heavy it took 1.44.65 for the 1600m. Hard to leave out. Prince Kaapstad also has talent aplenty, but his latest form, in stronger company, has been below his best.
Verdict: Vickezzchardonnay is a must and so is Heracles. Thrown Dezigna in for some level of insurance.
Leg 5
This race is a nightmare - it's for horses that have started in a hurdle or steeplechase and for R70 types. For a $1 million Pick6 - you're kidding.
If you're going on recent form you have to like Secret Magic. He had a R80 race won at Tauherenikau last week until Twoeezy produced a remarkabe finish to sweep by. The wide barrier is an issue at 2000m, but a clever ride will overcome that.
Ipleadinsanity and Protene Jewel are also both dropping back from R80 class and in this field that counts for plenty. Stalking has been running in stronger fields and has drawn ideally and Allan Sharrock's trio Critta, Designer Shaik and Star of Jazz are among the stack of chances.
Verdict: Take as many as you can afford - and close your eyes.
Leg 6
The only two winners in the field look smart horses. Kirkwood showed real potential when he beat a field of similar class to this in maidens at Te Rapa last start. John Wheeler produces Katy Lied who came back from a long break to bolt in at Hawera. The insurance is Elle Rahtwo, who closed strongly behind Katy Lied at 1200m at Hawera and should relish the 1400m here.
Verdict: If your budget says two it's Kirkwood and Katy Lied.
