Today's $250,000 Dominion Handicap at Addington is Springbank Richard's to lose.
That is the logical conclusion after the lead-up to today's group one trot, which has been moved from its traditional date next Friday night.
Springbank Richard would have been on the third line of betting at best for today's race two months ago, when it was thought Stig and One Over Kenny might make it to Addington.
But with those champions sidelined, Springbank Richard started the last month with only Speculate and northern star Sovereignty in his way.
He has since demolished Speculate twice in mobile races, both times after giving her a huge start.
If they both turn up at Addington in that same form today it is hard to see the result being anything but the same.
Sovereignty has been luckless, rather than disappointing, in two runs in the South Island in the past fortnight and had no chance after getting four back on the markers in the New Zealand Free-For-All won by Speculate on Tuesday.
He made ground well in the home straight and trainer Sean McCaffrey was far from concerned.
"I think he could have won if he had been parked but we couldn't get there," said the Cambridge horseman.
"But I think he will be handier this time and he is where he needs to be physically."
If Sovereignty can get in front of Springbank Richard early, and neither are perfect from a standing start, maybe he can upset the southerner.
But if Springbank Richard settles the most forward of the three favourites it is hard to see him beaten.
His trainer Phil Williamson confirmed Springbank Richard is spot on for today after he took the gamble of missing the Free-For-All on Tuesday.
"I think he is better when he doesn't have to back up because he tries so hard and take so much out of himself.
"So he is at his peak for this one race."
Williamson, an expert trainer of trotters, says he is not concerned by Springbank Richard returning to standing start racing after two of his past three outings have been in mobile start race. "That is another reason we let him miss Tuesday's race and we will have no excuses."
Speculate's task has been made that much harder by her drawing the second line, especially as she is a mare who likes to be handy to the speed.
Victory would cap a remarkable story for the 8-year-old mare, who is already a grandmother after being put in foal as a 3-year-old when her joints were too weak for her to race.
Racing: Springbank Richard has rivals covered
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