Racing: Spratt longshot to break Derby hoodoo

Danielle Johnson on Mission Hill is a strong chance in the $1 million Vodafone NZ Derby at Ellerslie today. Photo / NZ Racing Desk

The first thing to leave Sam Spratt's mouth when her feet hit the ground off second-placed What's The Story in the 2016 Derby was: "Damn, I'm going to win this race one day."

What's The Story was beaten the length of your forearm by Rangipo, the second time Spratt had filled the runner-up's position.

Well, if Spratt is to fulfil her wish today she will have to do it aboard $100 chance, Tavlin.

A much better chance for women jockeys to end a zero winning record in New Zealand's most prestigious classic will be Danielle Johnson, who climbs onto the back of second favourite Mission Hill just after 5pm this afternoon.

Johnson still bristles over finishing fifth, just on half a length from Rangipo in the NZ Derby of two years ago when things went terribly wrong in running for Valley Girl. The irony is today on Mission Hill she will be trying to defeat Valley's Girl's trainers Donna Logan and Chris Gibbs who produce Danzdanzdance.

If she has one slight reservation over winning today it's: "I wish this race was six months from now." Unfortunately, 26 weeks from today Ellerslie will once again host the Great Northern Steeplechase.

"He will be an awesome horse in another six months," Johnson says of Mission Hill, a stylish 3-year-old the Murray Baker/Andrew Forsman stable has always declared to be a little later developing than some of the stable's 3-year-olds.

"But he's doing everything right," says Johnson, "so perhaps it won't count against him."

In the background is father Peter Johnson, one of racing's greatest tactical jockeys before his retirement a few years ago. But PD as he was known throughout the industry will have no input in how his daughter handles Mission Hill today. "That's not our job. I only say something if I feel she's done something wrong during a race. When she first started she used to look around a lot in the home straight and I drilled into her to look straight ahead. You'll never see her head move in the home straight these days.

"At Te Rapa one day Danielle had a great book of rides and they were small fields. I said stay off the rail because in small fields you'll get locked up. She stayed off the rail and won three or four that day." Danzdanzdance is a justifiable favourite. She has enormous potential to charge through the ranks and has probably the sharpest 300m sprint in the Derby field. But there remains a faint suspicion her light frame may just start to feel the pinch in the final 10 strides if the classic is run at very hard speed. The footing after showers yesterday is likely to be worse than good, similar to the testing ground in the Avondale Guineas.

Which points us to tipping Mission Hill to possibly edge Danzdanzdance out. We were more confident of Scott Base doing that provided his wide gate hadn't turned into a nightmare, but even in his absence it should be a hugely competitive contest.

There were excuses all over the park after the Avondale Guineas, but you can make a strong case Mission Hill had the biggest claim after being blocked for a run forward at the 230m.

Last word goes to PD. "I hope she wins on Mission Hill because I bought her 15 steers at the cattle sales this morning. They cost $1000 each and she needs to win the Derby to pay me."