Top Sydney jockey Hugh Bowman rates Sousa as clearly the toughest stumbling block to a New Zealand victory in Saturday's A$1.6 million ($2 million) AJC Derby at Randwick.
Bowman will form a rare big race partnership with a New Zealand stable when he rides the Murray and Bjorn Baker-trained Harris Tweed, a week after they combined for an impressive win in the Tulloch Stakes at Rosehill.
He was impressed with the Montjeu gelding's first Australian start and while confident of winning his first AJC Derby, Bowman admitted the A$4.20 favourite Sousa provided his biggest fear.
"He's definitely the main danger. I think he will stay the trip [2400m] and will be up on the pace making his own luck," Bowman said.
"He's the one they all have to beat but I think I'm on the one horse that can."
Bowman rode the Peter Snowden-trained Sousa, by top Irish sire Galileo, to a narrow second to Metal Bender in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) on March 28.
Kerrin McEvoy, No 1 Australian rider for Sheikh Mohammed's powerful Darley stable, takes over on Saturday on a surface forecast to be good to dead.
Bowman was booked for Harris Tweed when the Bakers' first choice, Michael Rodd, was committed to the Mark Kavanagh-trained Dr Doute's.
Harris Tweed rocketed into Derby contention with his Tulloch win and was last night an equal third favourite at A$8.50 with the Gai Waterhouse-trained Rock Kingdom.
"There was a lot of merit in the win. I initially thought he was a little bit dour but it was a heavy track and he was coming back in distance [after running fourth in the 2500m New Zealand St Leger], so he did a good job to manage a win," Bowman said.
"But it is a significant class rise and there's better form through the Rosehill Guineas."
Still, Bowman felt he had the New Zealand-bred Metal Bender covered.
The A$4.60 second favourite is shooting for three consecutive group one wins but drew barrier 14 out of 16, while Sousa and Harris Tweed drew one and two.
"I was very pleased with our draw and even more pleased when Metal Bender drew 14. I wouldn't write him off but he is a query over the distance.
"Sousa will force a strong pace and make it a true staying test which will suit him, and us. We're a live chance and hopefully we can get the money."
The Bakers are bidding for their second consecutive AJC Derby after Nom Du Jeu won a year ago.
Their main query was that Harris Tweed doesn't have the sharp sprint of Nom Du Jeu, but Bjorn Baker said he was in fine fettle.
"He's really clicked into action once he's got to 2000m and longer trips."
- NZPA
Racing: Sousa the danger to Kiwi, says Bowman
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