Racing: Soft track changes the plot

Atapi has no win on rain-affected footing in his New Zealand statistical formline, but don't be fooled by that.

Assess his chances in tomorrow's $120,000 First Sovereign Japan/New Zealand Trophy at Tauranga on his Australian form.

If the Tauranga track comes up officially soft, which yesterday seemed likely, Atapi's Caloundra Guineas win in heavy conditions last year will become an important form statistic.

Atapi's latest form includes a last-start resounding win at Ellerslie under 57kg, running the 1600m in a lightning 1.33.17.

But as trainer Richard Otto points out, he is just as good in the wet.

"His Caloundra Guineas win was very good in heavy conditions."

Atapi faces a tough test with 58kg topweight tomorrow, but could have carried the additional 1kg and won at Ellerslie last start.

He was ridden in that race by visiting Queensland-based jockey Michael Rodd, who told Otto the 4-year-old had a fair bit left at the finish.

Rodd was impressed enough to commit himself to riding Atapi in an Australian campaign, including the Doncaster Handicap at Randwick, but those plans have now been sidelined.

"At this stage it's almost certain that we'll keep him at home and aim at the Easter at Ellerslie instead.

"Physically he's six months away from development and if we rush him across to Sydney it might put us on the back foot for plans we have in the spring.

"He's the right type of horse to aim at the Hastings races in the spring then to go across to Melbourne, where you can often find an easy track in the spring.

"He's still quite immature."

Atapi will be ridden by Grant Cooksley.

Lance O'Sullivan will go into the race guessing with Temple Hills if the conditions remain soft.

The big, talented improver has a win in heavy ground against his name, but O'Sullivan is not relying on that.

"I think that was just a case of his class getting him there when he was coming through the grades.

"He trialled in wet conditions before he raced and he was hopeless in the footing.

"But now that he's matured he's not a complete duffer on an off track.

"One thing in his favour is that he's very strong and he might be able to just get through the ground, but the way he can accelerate on a firm track, I'd be surprised if he's as good when it's soft," said O'Sullivan.

As he points out, $120,000 is a good stake by New Zealand standards and Temple Hills will be taking his place and his chances.

Tony Pike is one trainer delighted at the prospect of a soft track for his runner Orpington.

The in-form gelding has not won in three starts at 1600m, but every other statistic around last week's impressive winner would make you want to be in his camp.

He is unbeaten in two starts at Tauranga and unbeaten in three starts on soft or heavy conditions.

"He's good on top of the ground, but he seems to get four to five lengths better when there's rain around," says Pike.

"He ran 1400m in 1.29.8 on a heavy track at Ellerslie one day then came out on a good track at Tauranga next start and ran 1.22 for the same distance, so he doesn't care what the footing's like."

Pike is unconcerned about the distance. "It's a relatively soft mile around Tauranga and I'd be surprised if that beat him."

The thought of a rain-affected track encourages Stephen Autridge's hopes for Tui Song.

Autridge admits he was a touch disappointed when Tui Song tailed the field when she resumed from a spell at Ellerslie two weeks ago, but he has reassessed that.

"Lisa Cropp said not to worry, she thought the run was okay," said Autridge. "Certainly the mare has worked well this week and with a bit of rain around she will be suited."

Tui Song has a tough 58kg, but she has earned it.