KEY POINTS:
So You is one of the country's emerging staying stars and we need them badly.
The Cambridge mare has paid remarkably good money in each of her last two wins.
The odds won't be as good in Race 7 at Ellerslie today, but she looks a fine prospect, despite getting up to 57.5kg in the weights. That's not an easy level for a mare to win from, but it is only 3.5kg above the real chances.
Interestingly, So You is a double acceptor and late yesterday she needed only one more scratching to make it into the $125,000 Eagle Counties Cup, and don't discount her in that race if she manages to get in. Also, don't ignore Aftershock in the unlikely event that three further scratchings are posted this morning. It would not be impossible for them to quinella the Cup.
Our stayers are forming new ranks and until the lines are clearly defined we'll see more guesswork races like today's Counties Cup.
A good example is that Sharvasti (No8, R8) is having only her second start in open company, and only her 11th overall, but is a clear favourite - deservedly so on her dashing finish to win at Ellerslie on Melbourne Cup day.
In a very confusing race, Pretorius (No5) is the value runner after a first-up sixth behind Fiscal Madness at Ellerslie. Ritzy Lady (No15) is, like So You, emerging and the mares Justa Tad (No6) and Mac Five (No12) are capable of a trifecta spot. Tough race.
In the opener, Willy Smith (No8, R1) may not be out of play despite the fact that the 1600m is short of his best. He's a natural 2400m type, but fresh from a break he might sneak this. Interesting race.
If you saw The Pooka (No2, R3) win by nearly 10 lengths on debut, you'll be on him here, even though to win he'll have to eclipse another debut dasher Crossyourheart (No8). Even if you made the case that the opposition were not up to much in a four-horse field, The Pooka's Taranaki win was remarkable. Gavin McKeon hardly moved on him to get him to race clear.
This should be a good race between two very smart horses.
Willie Ryan (No16, R4) impressed when a close third fresh from a spell at Ellerslie last start. He will be quickly looking for a middle distance, but stepping up to 1600m should see him competitive in only his second race this preparation. Sam Trotter has a nice horse in Victorious Dancer (No15) and The Silence Sir (No10) is one you can have a bit on here and follow.
The most significant apprentice claim all day is the 4kg Cody Singer takes off Superalloy (No1, R5). He similarly dropped Superalloy from 58kg to 54kg last start and he was beaten a neck, but he's a great chance to correct that defeat today.
Arlingtonboulevard (No1, R6) is in such great form she is worth the risk even though the 1400m and her back-running tactics count against her in the $100,000 Thoroughbred Breeders' Stakes. She's going to be slow away as usual, which means she will do it tough, but she has a bit on some of these horses.
Shastri (No2, R9) hasn't raced for 21 months, but he might still be a threat in the open sprint. He had an operation to remove part of the cannon bone after an accident in his last race start in February last year and trainer John Sargent says he's been swimming the smart galloper to keep the weight off his legs.
With no claims, Devoted (No1) will have to carry his clear 58kg topweight, but he will be improved with his last race at Te Rapa. With 54kg on her back 3-year-old filly Solvini (No5) looks badly off compared to the weight-for-age scale, but it's only 1kg above the minimum.
Another filly Magic Tryst (No7, R10) looks even worse off against the weight-for-age scale with 58kg, but similarly it is only 1.5kg above anything else. Zerello (No8) looked a next-up winner when a luckless second at Te Rapa last start.
