The long-delayed answer could be: around 5.20pm today.
Since his signature performance as a 3-year-old Smolda has run into roadblocks to the Cup-winner's circle, some of them his own physical frailties, others the star power of Terror To Love, Christen Me and Adore Me.
But now, with his body sound, his motor expertly tuned and his arch-rivals having abdicated the throne, Smolda is ready to be king.
He goes into today's Cup fit, healthy, in-form and the winner of the key lead-up race, the Ashburton Flying Stakes.
The seven-year-old has the draw and manners to settle handy and control his own destiny and is the leading chance from our most potent stable, that of Mark Purdon and Natalie Rasmussen.
It is his Cup to lose.
"I rate him as good a chance of winning as Adore Me was last season because, to be honest, this field isn't as strong," says Purdon, who will drive Smolda.
"He is spot on and we couldn't be happier with him and I think he really took benefit from racing in Australia through the autumn and winter. That has meant he came home with a fitness base so we have been able to get him ready for this week with only two starts under his belt."
It was during that Australian campaign that Smolda hinted at a return to his peak, beating Aussie champion Beautide fair and square on his own patch at Menangle in a group one mile. Everything he has done since, coupled with the withdrawal of Christen Me, suggests Smolda can win today.
Purdon also has Messini in today's 3200m thriller and his recent formline mirrors that of Smolda.
"The difference between them is Smolda can make his own luck in the running, while Messini is probably better driven with one run. Messini can win for sure but Smolda is our best chance."
Smolda is likely to shorten into tote favouritism today and replace Sky Major at the head of the market, even if the latter is the most talented horse in the race. A three-time Jewels winner as well as Messenger Pace and Chariots of Fire champion, Sky Major looks perfectly primed for today, with every step this campaign in the right direction.
While keeping out of the early rush and swooping into the race from the mile has become the most popular way to win the Cup, his trainer Barry Purdon has one concern.
"I couldn't be happier with him and the race could pan out to suit him," Barry said.
"But what bothers me is that Smolda, Ohoka Punter and Arden Rooney are drawn to be handier than him and maybe we won't have another one of the favourites back in the field to cart us into the race."
If the tempo is hot early and Arden Rooney pours it on in the middle stages, then Sky Major could blow his rivals away late, like Terror To Love did in his first Cup success. But the fact he may need more luck than Smolda means the TAB's early assessment of the pair is unlikely to hold up on the tote.
Ohoka Punter is the consummate professional who, like Smolda, should find himself in a position to win the race so is wonderful each way value, while Arden Rooney looks set to be the leader at some stage, the question is whether he can hold off a top class swooper. Messini and Tiger Tara, as proven group one performers, look the only other winning chances.
Cup Day
What: New Zealand Trotting Cup Day
Where: Addington Raceway, Christchurch.
When: Today, first race 12.05pm; NZ Cup, 5.15pm.
Who: New Zealand's best harness horses.
The big stuff: $750,000 NZ Trotting Cup; $170,000 Sires' Stakes Final; $80,000 NZ Trotting Free-For-All.
Watch: Trackside from 11.30am.
The punt: Fixed odds all races, head-to-head each race, driver's challenge, $50,000 Pick6 (races 7-12).
Cup picks
1. Smolda
2. Sky Major
3. Ohoka Punter
4. Messini.
