Four years ago at the Karaka yearling sale Sir Patrick Hogan wasn't just selling a bunch of Zabeels for a stack of money.
He was also briefly in buying mode.
He wanted to buy a Melbourne Cup winner.
When he forked out $90,000 for a Pentire yearling, he thought he had hit the mother lode.
"This is the horse I'm going to win the Melbourne Cup with," he remembers telling himself at the time.
Time has proven that everyone, and that includes the finest thoroughbred breeder this country has seen, can, and does, get it wrong.
When that horse, Penrickson, won at the Te Teko barrier trials on Tuesday, Hogan couldn't wait to relate how badly he got it wrong.
"I've got more chance of winning the Melbourne Cup than this horse has," said Hogan as the athletic Penrickson returned after quite a dashing trials win. "He can't get past 2000m."
Penrickson won his first two races in New Zealand and has been racing in good staying class from Graeme Rogerson's Sydney stable for the past two seasons.
"He's a fast 2000m stayer," said Rogerson, who has brought the horse back for New Zealand spring racing. "That's why he was so good around the small tracks like Canterbury in Sydney."
There had been some hope Penrickson might have contested the Kelt Capital Stakes, but he is very unlikely to make that field.
One horse who finished behind Penrickson in third place on Tuesday who might be a hope in a Melbourne Cup is Mr Tipsy.
The Murray and Bjorn Baker-trained stayer looked in magnificent condition and will improve sharply with the trial.
"He's done very well since he's been back from Sydney," said Bjorn Baker.
Mr Tipsy went a long way very quickly in his last campaign and should be that much better in this next preparation.
"He finished fifth in the BMW as a relatively inexperienced horse, so he's got a future."
Graeme and Debbie Rogerson had a remarkable 38 horses at Tuesday's trials.
Leading trainer Mark Walker won all three 600m 2-year-old trials with a General Nediym-Zoilis colt, Change of Heart (colt by Show A Heart-Shinko Blu) and Reason and Rhyme (colt by Exceed and Excel-Miss Behave).
Sandblaster, off the scene for most of last season, showed he was ready to do something when he dashed away after leading and scored comfortably from grand sprinter Clifton Prince.
Joey Massino won another 1000m open heat and Occidentalis, Corsage, Rio Fortune, St Germaine, Cat Woman and Prince Of Wales all did good work to finish with not a great deal between them in the strongest heat of the day.
Promising Prince Of Wales will derive huge benefit from the outing.
Racing: Sir Patrick's Cup 'mistake' shows he's still got a future with trials win
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