The opener is not an easy race. Three of the main chances are mares at the top of the handicap with plenty of weight. Slightly in their favour is that there is not a lot of differential in the weight scale so Lady Kalimara (No3, R1) looks a good each-way prospect. She looked good getting home strongly into second over 1560m when resuming at Rotorua and will appreciate getting up to 2200m.
It's never easy going R65-R75 to open company in three starts, but Augusta National (No10, R2) is going to give it a decent shake. She has won quite easily in both her last two starts and with Brendan Hutton claiming 2kg she is going to go around in this with just 51kg.
This is not a particularly strong open company line-up and she will get her chance. If the predicted showers eventuate Carlotta (No6) and Lion Red (No4) will be well suited.
Race 3, the 3-year-old, sees a multitude of different formlines coming together, making it difficult to get form cross reference. Watch This Space (No2) was fractionally disappointing on debut, but corrected that nicely by winning over a decent maiden field at Te Aroha last start. From a reasonable barrier he is a decent each-way bet in an impossible field. Harry (No4) was impressive producing a winning debut.
Spreadeagled (No3, R4) and Zucchero (No4) are a couple of maidens who deserve to break through for their initial victories. Both have drawn well so there should be no excuses. Nisaean (No2) looked very good in finishing strongly into second on debut, but his chance here might depend on reasonable footing.
When the 2-year-olds get to 1600m you have to have a youngster that can find the line strongly. Unbeaten Lamarosa (No1, R5) has the credentials and the improving San Miguel (No4) has them also. Neither has raced on anything but good footing, but it will be a surprise if either has a problem with a mid-range surface. Brighton (No3) and Brigadier (No2) are strong chances and musts for multiple bets.
Hollywood Lad (No4, R6) looks one of the better prospects. There was a bit to like about his second at Awapuni last start. Similarly the Ellerslie maiden win by Take It Out (No6). He had been a win waiting to happen for some time and had to overcome slight difficulty to get the money.
Visitor Werther (No2, R7) is a strong chance in the $100,000 Valachi Downs Championship Stakes, although there might be a slight question over him if the showers eventuate. He is a staying 3-year-old with real potential, the slight problem being the wide barrier. Redeem Code (No3) looks promising and had to do too much work from a wide gate when fourth at Awapuni last start. He has drawn much better this time.
Of all of these races, the $200,000 Manco Easter is going to be the most affected by which way the weather swings. The better the footing the better the chances of Kawi (No6, R9). Trainer Allan Sharrock is confident Kawi will manage a mid-range track, but anything worse might be a worry. Which is why Vespa (No18) sits there as favourite. He can handle most surfaces and has just 52kg on his back. Befitting an Easter, this is a huge form-laden field, presenting punters with a real challenge.
Addictive Habit (No4) looked really good chasing Allez Eagle home when resuming at Te Aroha last start and drops 2kg this time to a more comfortable 57kg. Allez Eagle (No11) and Spellbinder (No17) are two further strong considerations. The wetter the track the better Spellbinder will like it.
The last, R10, is one of the tougher "get out stakes" you could imagine. Light Shadow (No9) deserves to win, but has to overcome a wide barrier. If he gets a reasonable passage mid-race his ability to finish powerfully will carry him close. Nailed It (No16) is in great form.
• A band of rain is due through Hawkes Bay this morning and early afternoon, which will suit Storming The Tower (No5, R8) who has for some time been looking for a shower or two close to raceday. A big advantage is that he drops to 54kg in the $75,000 Hawke's Bay Gold Cup.
