You might have to take short odds on three or four runners to profit at Ruakaka today.
Some smart horses are fronting up, the likes of Ring Of Fire, Pin Up Boy, Cog Hill, Aftershock and a handful of very promising youngsters in supporting races.
Difficult to see how they can beat Ring Of Fire (No 2, R7), even allowing he is in the middle of a preparation for the 2400m Metropolitan Handicap in Sydney in three weeks. Today's 1600m may see him a tad short on zip, but he's a smart animal and most of the opposition are similarly looking at staying races.
The one most likely to test him is Punt Higher (No 7). Forget the 6560 formline - he's a whole lot better than that and has had no luck in two starts this preparation. Maybe a quinella?
A small to medium-sized packed suitcase is going to be the weight differential between Cog Hill (No 1, R4) and Pin Up Boy (No 2) in the open sprint.
If this was a run-of-the-mill sprint field, you would still give Cog Hill a chance on 61kg, after all he won under 60kg at Te Rapa in early May on his way to the Brisbane winter carnival and his third in the A$1 million ($1.2 million) Stradbroke. But this time it's probably going to be a bit different - he has to give massive weight to Pin Up Boy, who is claiming 4kg with Masa Tanada.
Pin Up Boy was placed in our only two group-one 1200m sprints, the Railway and the Telegraph, last summer. If Pin Up Boy runs along at Railway tempo with his light weight, Cog Hill is going to have a real job on his hands.
Pin Up Boy needs to be fit enough to get the job done, but two wins from three career starts when fresh from a spell pretty much tells you the answer to that.
Cog Hill's trainers, Richard Collett and Shane Hapeta, have two good chances in the races either side of their stable star in Towzee (No 2, R3) and Millstone (No 1, R5). Towzee looked useful as a 3-year-old last season and although resuming here where others have had recent racing, he would have benefited from the second to class act Baldessarini at the Te Teko barrier trials. He should get the perfect run from the No 2 gate. Promethian (No 1) might also run a cheeky race when fresh.
Millstone made his debut on this track two weeks ago with a second to Star Of Nero and gave the impression he might be better over a bit more distance than the 1200m. He steps up to 1400m today and that may make the difference. He trailed the leader that day and should do so again from the rails draw.
One of the deeply interesting races is the 3-year-old affair in which Magic Cape (No 3, R2) and Solvini (No 1) match it with several impressive youngsters from last season.
Solvini was not far off the very best juveniles in the summer and autumn, and Magic Cape was staggering in his debut, coming from last to win by 6.5 lengths at Ellerslie in his only start so far. That was in very heavy ground, but he looks too smart to be just a mudder. Pay attention to this race, it's going to be a very important form guide for the next three months.
Trainer Moira Murdoch thought enough of Sabayon (No 7, R8) to take her to the Oaks at Trentham in January. Murdoch does not overmatch her horses and if she thinks that much of the young mare then she can resume on something of a note in the R76 1600m.
Few horses made more impression in their first couple of starts last season than Aftershock (No 1, R9). If there is a slight doubt that he can figure today, it's that he made a winning debut at Ellerslie over 1600m, came back next start to win at 2100m and races over only 1400m today. But the Gibbs/Logan stable should have him ready to figure on his home track.
Saucy Az (No 9) found the Hastings track a touch too firm, but still performed very well to be less than three lengths behind Giovanni in a strong field. There should be a bit more give for her here. Bronte (No 8) is now trained at Ruakaka and finished a nice third there when resuming. There should be some improvement and she is probably not far away from a win.
Assignment (No 1, R2) at the Marton meeting at Awapuni deserves a win. He fought strongly for third in that very talented field behind Giovanni at Hastings and gets his chance to quit maidens here. Normally you wouldn't be tipping 5-year-olds to win a maiden, but he has had only three career starts, is a lovely type and looks very genuine. Izzaz (No 12) is an improver and Stormpastthepost (No 11) looked good in three starts as a juvenile and impressed winning at recent Foxton trials. He has to overcome a wide barrier.
Class in the form of Wahid (No 9, R8) and King Of Ashford (No 3) should shine through despite the depth in the Merial Metric Mile at Awapuni.
Wahid got the chop at the 375m when resuming behind Seachange in the Mudgway Stakes and will be that much fitter. King Of Ashford is top class and Karen Zimmerman says she has him as close to the mark as she can get for a first-up run.
Underrated Bulginbaah (No 2) ran a slasher for fifth in the Mudgway on a track too firm for him. This footing will be a bit easier and you can't to leave him out of the trifecta.
The A$300,000 Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley today continues the outstanding racing we are seeing for the Melbourne spring carnival.
You have to like Apache Cat in the Feehan after his second in the Memsie Stakes to arguably the best horse in Melbourne, El Segundo. In that race Apache Cat raced like a horse desperate to be tried in blinkers - he spent much of the race gazing around, lost ground on the leaders on the home bend, and then ran on strongly in the final stages.
Interestingly, there is no notification for blinkers for today, but there is no El Segundo either with rumours around Melbourne this week there could be trouble with the horse's legs.
Racing: Short odds for Ruakaka profits
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