By MIKE DILLON
Bobby Thomsen surveyed a sodden Melbourne landscape from his hotel window yesterday afternoon and cursed.
The Sydney trainer knew 18 months of planning was about to fly out a metaphorical window if the rain continued.
The dream of Thomsen's recent training career - to win the Cox Plate with Shogun Lodge - is in danger of being destroyed by the one factor over which he has no control.
The scenario around Saturday's $A2 million Cox Plate is that tactics, more than in any Cox Plate in memory, will decide the Southern Hemisphere's toughest and richest weight-for-age race.
Will Sunline lead? If so, will Sky Heights put pressure on her in front to the point of setting it up for the two fast finishers, Tie The Knot and Shogun Lodge?
Shogun Lodge's record shows he is a duffer on a wet track. Thomsen knows that when you have not won once in the mud, you can't expect the first victory to be the Cox Plate.
Yet he was somewhat heartened by the way Shogun Lodge managed the soft conditions of the Moonee Valley track during the Breakfast With The Stars session on Tuesday morning.
"Horses are funny creatures. They can gain confidence in the strangest ways and just maybe he handled the Strathayr surface at Moonee Valley better than he would the wet tracks at Caulfield or Flemington," he said.
Thomsen is counting on the weather tomorrow and Saturday being reasonable and the track getting back to no worse than dead (easy).
On a good track Thomsen would be quietly confident of Shogun Lodge posing a real threat to Sunline.
"Given a fair track he'll be more than competitive.
"No doubt Sunline is the yardstick - she won it last year - but that was 12 months ago and the race on Saturday will be entirely different.
"The form says she is better than last year, but then the opposition will be different this time. This should be a much tougher race."
Thomsen said he was delighted with the way Shogun Lodge finished off in his previous race in the Yalumba Stakes.
"It was his first start past 1600m this campaign and he hits the line really well. He's trained to the minute for this race."Like everyone else, Thomsen knows that if he beats Sunline he will just about get the major end of the stake.
"There is no way in the world she will get away with a soft lead like she had last year," he said.
"Not that she needs to get that to win. She can still win off a genuine pace - after all she is Sunline. It will be an interesting race."
Colin Alderson is completely unconcerned how much rain falls for Sky Heights.
Not only can his horse manage a rain-affected surface, he lacks the dash of a number of the opposition and the race becoming more of a grind in the wet would suit him perfectly.
Racing: Shogun Lodge's Cox assault under cloud
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