The No 18 barrier looks horrific for second favourite ($4.80) Passing Shot, but if the emergencies all come out he will start from No 13 and he has the early speed to negate much of that disadvantage.
He was only just caught by the talented Vespa over 1400m at Trentham last start and as a natural speedster he looks better placed here at 1200m, over which he has won four from five.
Any deterioration in the footing would bring Tavy right into the race.
Not so much because of the footing, but because it would make it more of a staying contest and Tavy might find the 1200m a touch sharp on a very good surface. She showed plenty of talent in her last campaign.
Southerner Signify makes an interesting addition to this field. Difficult to weigh up her form, but it was an open handicap she won at Riccarton last start and she won it well.
Castamere (No1, R2) won with a very strong finish at Rotorua last start, but that was on a heavy track and this race, on much better footing, will tell whether he is just a mudder. Although a little rawboned at this stage, he is still quite strong. With any number of debut runners with stylish barrier trial form, this race sets up to be a bit of a trap.
Kelly O'Reilly (No6, R3) is a smart mare resuming from a break and she has produced some good efforts when very fresh. She also has a good record at Te Rapa, which is important and she looks a good prospect on 53.5kg. Course specialist Spin Doctor (No1) with six wins from 12 Te Rapa starts, will get his chance with Zinjete Moki taking his weight down from 59kg to 56kg. He can never be counted out here. Barbaric (No4) goes well when fresh and is a two time winner here.
Stolen Dance (No1, R4) has plenty of class and is not short on fight either. She stuck at her task admirably to win narrowly at Ellerslie last start and with a claim here comes into this race on her home track nicely. Rockfast (No3) has been freshened and that should suit.
It's a bit like stating the obvious, but Miss Foxwood (No6, R6) has to be the horse to beat. She found the line strongly when third behind Vespa in open company at Awapuni last start and the start prior she also worked home well to close nicely on Gustavo. From a good barrier she deserves this one. Gustavo (No3) and Makarska (No9) are the dangers.
Atacama (No3, R7) is going to be suited by the jump to 2000m for the $100,000 Travis Stakes. She got home strongly into fourth in the Breeders at Te Aroha after being a long way out of her ground early and this race looks likely to be at the right time for her. Last year's winner Lauren Tate (No6) also did well at Te Aroha after copping a bad check early. She ran home strongly and is also suited to this 2000m. You just can't leave out Pondarosa Miss (No1) and Chintz (No7) is the roughie.
Don't drop Mabeel (No8, R8) for his failure as favourite at Awapuni last start. There is no excuse we are aware of, but he's a lot better than that and can be given another chance here. Matt Dillon (No3) is worth a dollar fresh from a break and is one to follow.
Defending her group two Travis Stakes crown has long been the goal for Lauren Tate, says Taupiri breeder-owner-trainer John Morell.
And she couldn't be in any better condition going into the race, according to the Pins 5-year-old mare's biggest fan. "She galloped well on Tuesday with Stolen Dance and went well again today," Morell said after Lauren Tate's hit out at Te Rapa on Thursday morning. "Stolen Dance had the edge on her the last time they galloped together but this time it was more even, if not our mare having the slight edge on her.
"This race has been her main target all the way through. She's got a good draw [barrier three] and the 2000m is her pet distance. People tend to underestimate her a bit. She's a very good horse and I think people don't realise just how good she is."
A winner of four of her 23 starts, Lauren Tate's best win was her narrow defeat of Gwynethanne and Skysoblue in last year's Travis Stakes (2000m), though she raced well in Brisbane last winter, finishing fourth in both the group three Chairman's Handicap and Listed Tatt's Mile and second in the Listed Rockhampton Cup. Lauren Tate is poised to be promoted to winning the Rockhampton Cup, with the winner since found to have returned a positive swab for a banned substance.
Her last start seventh in the New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders' Stakes at Te Aroha was a far better effort than it reads on paper, having suffered significant interference early in the race, before finishing strongly.
- Additional reporting NZ Racing Desk
