Whichever way you analyse the New Zealand Bloodstock Royal Stakes, it's difficult to predict any other outcome than a repeat of the Shikoba-Pulcinella quinella result from last Monday's Eight Carat Classic.
The only variable in this next leg of the Filly of the Year series could be the order they cross the line.
It's an open book on which is superior after Shikoba received much the better luck in running before beating Pulcinella by a neck in the Eight Carat.
From an outside gate Pulcinella ended up in the rear and did very well to go so close to winning on a day that did not favour back-runners.
"Swap draws and she wins," was trainer Don Sellwood's brief but pointed summation of the Eight Carat result.
Pressed further, he throws in the dead track conditions as a further measure of his filly's effort.
"When she won the Avondale Guineas on a good track she was able to accelerate much more effectively," he commented.
"That track the other day took a lot of the ping out of her finish."
Shikoba's trainer Mark Walker makes no attempt to counter his rival's argument.
"I agree with Don totally," said Walker frankly.
"My filly got her reward after having not much luck in a couple of important races, but you'd have to say the other filly was unlucky the way things panned out."
Both trainers are satisfied that their charges will cope with the stiff demands of two races in six days.
But Walker ads an interesting proviso.
"That track with the sting out of it on the first day was a big help and the same will apply this time," he said.
"She has good form on top of the ground but she doesn't mind it the other way too."
No problems are envisaged for either filly taking the step up in distance, but neither trainer would be happy with the outside barrier draws they have been allotted at the tricky 2000m start.
Sellwood is doing his best to ignore Pulcinella's compact physique and the top line of her pedigree, being a daughter of former top class sprinter Stravinsky.
"All I know is that she's out of a daughter of Dance Floor and they could stay but I wouldn't know what else there is," he said.
The good news for Sellwood is that Pulcinella"s second dam is by another staying influence in Hello Gorgeous and the family has produced the Hong Kong Derby winner Holy Grail and the listed 2400 metre winner Madjic.
Two already proven stayers in the Royal Stakes field are Sable, a winner over 2100m at Ellerslie three weeks ago, and Sabayon, who won over 2000m on debut at Avondale at the beginning of the month.
Others capable of claiming some of the $100,000 stake include Purde, the winner of two from three, and Fancyfree, whose last start second over 1600m contained staying potential.
Racing: Set for repeat performance
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