Racing: Seachange's reputation on line

The spring prospects of Seachange would have to be reassessed with anything but a win in today's $60,000 Foxbridge Plate, says racing manager Rick Williams.

The Foxbridge Plate (1400m), run at Te Rapa in Hamilton, will be a stepping stone for Seachange to the group one $150,000 Mudgway Stakes (1400m) at Hastings on September 2.

Williams, who is the New Zealand racing manager of the horse's Queensland owner Dick Karreman, could not have been more candid when explaining what was on the line for Seachange.

"She's going to have to win this and win it well to really be competitive in the Mudgway," Williams said.

Seachange was one of the star 3-year-old fillies of last season. She was unbeaten in five starts, including the group one $275,000 One Thousand Guineas (1600m) at Riccarton.

Hopes are very high for Seachange. She is nominated for the A$3 million ($3.6 million) weight-for-age Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley in Melbourne on October 28.

Williams said this campaign would determine if Seachange was a superstar in the making.

"We don't know how good she is," he said. "This is the year we are going to find out because up until now she has run up against those of her own age.

"When you start running against the 4- and 5-year-olds, you start finding out if you are any good.

"A lot of horses look good as 3-year-olds but in the 4-year-old year they tend to disappoint."

Seachange had her first start against older horses when resuming in an open class handicap at Te Rapa on July 29. She won but only scraped home by half a head.

Williams said it was probably only the class of the Cape Cross mare that saw her prevail in unsuitable slow track conditions over a distance of 1400m, which was a little far for a first-up assignment.

But he had no doubt the horse had improved significantly in the meantime.

"There's no doubt she's taken huge improvement out of that first race," he said. "She'll be a much better horse on Saturday but she'll need to be."

On Thursday Williams watched Seachange work with stablemate Rags To Riches, who is also a race rival today, and said Seachange finished slightly in front but was travelling much the better.

"It might have been a neck [by which she won] but it was the way she was doing it. She was travelling noticeably better on the line.

"When you are working outside a group one horse like Rags To Riches you have done some good work."

Rags To Riches, winner of the group one $150,000 Easter Handicap (1600m) at Ellerslie in April, is the horse Williams fears the most.

"He's the horse that worries me in the race. He's very fit."

Track conditions at Te Rapa were this morning rated as slow with a penetrometer reading of 4.1. However, there was a chance of improved conditions by raceday with fine weather in Hamilton today.

Williams said he would not want conditions to deteriorate. "It's on the borderline of what she handles; we would rather have it much firmer."

Seachange was yesterday a $2.15 favourite on the New Zealand TAB's fixed-odds market and Williams hoped for the sake of punters that Seachange would carry her supporters through.

"I haven't backed her for three or four starts, I just enjoy watching her.

"But I've got a feeling she is very good and I think we might see the real Seachange on Saturday."

Second favourite at $3.25 was Don't Ya Lovett from the Taranaki stable of Allan Sharrock.

Don't Ya Lovett, a top winter performer, took his record to 10 wins from 20 starts when taking out the $75,000 Opunake Cup (1400m) at Hawera on July 22.

He carried 57.5kg at Hawera and although carrying 59kg under the weight-for-age conditions on Saturday's race it should not prevent him from making a big showing.

The next most favoured horse on the fixed-odds market yesterday was Bulginbaah at $9. Rags To Riches was the fourth favourite at $12.

- NZPA