KEY POINTS:
The outside barrier draw has dampened trainer Ralph Manning's hopes for star New Zealand mare Seachange's first race in the United Arab Emirates tomorrow.
Seachange has drawn 16 in a field limited to 16 runners for the group two US$250,000 ($314,000) Jebel Hatta-Nayef in Dubai at 7.55am (NZ time).
The race will be screened live by Trackside Television.
Manning said Seachange's wide draw was made worse by the fact the inside running rail would be moved inwards for tomorrow's meeting, creating fresh ground for those drawn on the inside.
"The draw will make a difference because they have moved the rail so far in," Manning said yesterday.
"The inside three lanes will be the good lanes."
Since the Dubai carnival began in January, field sizes had been limited to 10 because the inside rail was out wide, but they had been increased to 16 with the rail to be moved back in, he said.
The trainer admitted Seachange's preparation for tomorrow's race was not ideal.
"It will be her first race in nearly four weeks and she is stepping up to a distance of 1777m, after racing over 1200 and 1400m in her first two races this campaign. I'm not confident.
"It's a testing track and she hasn't really had an ideal prep."
He said the Nad Al Sheba track was not conducive to fast times because of the "dead" nature of the soil.
"They don't get any bounce off it," he said. "It looks like they are going through the mud at Wellington coming up the straight.
"When they get to the 200 metres, everything just walks to the line. The 1800 will be like 2000 - it's a testing track."
Seachange will be ridden tomorrow by five-time United Arab Emirates champion jockey Ted Durcan.
Manning said Seachange had worked strongly since arriving in Dubai on about February 18 and was ridden by Durcan yesterday.
"He was happy with her. She's done plenty and she's thriving."
Manning had no idea about the strength of Seachange's opposition but Durcan told him the mounts of Frankie Dettori (Royal Oath) and Mick Kinane (Lord Admiral) were leading chances.
Lord Admiral won a 1777m group three race in Dubai on January 31, before finishing third in a 1600m group two there on February 21.
Second in the latter event was Royal Oath, who last July was second in a 1600m group two race at Ascot in England.
Manning said there was little point in changing Seachange's usual pattern of racing by allowing her to drop back from her wide draw.
"You have to go forward. She's done that all her life, so it doesn't really matter.
"We won't be leading, or anything like that. Ideally, I would like to see her tuck in about third, fourth or fifth. The leaders just don't seem to win here."
Tomorrow's race is a lead-up to Seachange's main Dubai goal, the group one US$5 million Dubai Duty Free (1777m) on March 29.
The Cape Cross 5-year-old mare has earned stakes of more than $1.5 million with a record of 24 starts for 14 wins, four seconds and two thirds mostly in the best company. Seven wins have been in group one races.
- NZPA
