Racing: Sarrera each way for $1.2m Kelt

Daffodil (outer) puts in big time and that's what wins races like a Kelt Capital Stakes. Photo / Hawke's Bay Today

It's just as well Australians know Sarrera well, love him and treat him as one of their own.

If Sarrera was one of ours and won today's $1.2 million Kelt Capital Stakes as a 9-year-old the Aussies would be bagging New Zealand weight-for-age form even more than they do now.

But punters across the Tasman know Sarrera as a genuine group one performer and any horse that can compete at that level in Australia can win anywhere.

Particularly when they get a situation to suit and Sarrera certainly gets that today.

A track with the cut in it and a distance he's won at the highest level.

Daffodil looks his biggest danger in what looks like - luck being equal - a dead-set transtasman clash.

There is nothing flash about Daffodil. She gets along like a hoppled duck at times, but she gets the job done.

She puts in big time and that's what wins races like a Kelt Capital Stakes.

The racing pattern at Hastings today will be interesting. The rail for the opening day of the carnival was out 2m.

It came out a further 2m for the middle day and now goes right back in to the true position, which means the inside 2m strip is brand new ground, possibly setting up a lead bias for the first part of the programme.

The Kelt is Race 9 and generally a bias will start to lessen or disappear as a programme progresses.

It will be well worth paying attention to where the winners come from in the first few races.

Sarrera is a back runner and needs the centre of the track to be assisting that type of horse to maximise his chances.

Sarrera each way looks the bet if the tote odds this afternoon reflect the fixed-odds market put forward by the TAB through the week.

The more damage to the Hastings track the midweek rain caused the better the chances in the opening event today of Dancing Diamond (No1, R1).

He's up a couple of kilos to 58kg from his winning run on the second day of the carnival, but he won that day as if the extra weight would not have stopped him.

The Haworth/Dixon team is flying and he might be a touch of value. The better the conditions the better Showcause (No7) will be. He's drawn the outside gate, but gets back anyway so there is no real disadvantage there. He's a fine emerging stayer and about to strike real form. Royal Jazz (No6) was in the worst part of the track when he led them up and finished second to Dancing Diamond two weeks ago and will probably find the reverse track bias is the case this time.

Race 2, the special conditions event, looks an even line-up. Kamar Dancer (No7) is one of the non-winners in the line-up, but he looks a horse with a fair bit of promise. He was beaten only a nose after covering extra ground when resuming at Te Rapa and comes into this race as a leading chance.

Not many horses win five from nine and Salvatore (No2, R3) is looking very smart for Anne Herbert and Hadley Searle. The wide gate this time is an issue and will require something special from David Walsh, but he looked so dominant after difficulties on $30,000 day at Pukekohe he has to be given a chance of maintaining his winning streak. In a tricky field, Mary Ellen (No3) and Not Tonite (No7) make appeal and Always Dreaming (No5) is capable of putting in a big fresh effort.

The paper form of Flavio (No5, R4) looks only fair, but he's a lot better than that. He's drawn perfectly at No 4 and looks a good each-way chance.

The barrier draw makes the $100,000 NZ Bloodstock Hawkes Bay Guineas messy. It's not going to be easy for The Heckler (No1, R5) from the outside of 16 gates, but he does have a lot of tactical speed and crossing the field to lead early is not an impossibility. If he gets there without using too much petrol his class can take him the rest of the way.

He was only half a length from the older and highly talented Mill Duckie when resuming at Ruakaka and will be improved for that. In a tough punting race, but a fascinating contest, King's Ransom (No3), The Hombre (No4) and St Germaine (No13) all make appeal.

Wall Street (No14, R6) steps up yet another grade to R90 today, but the way he's been winning he looks like he could jump up two grades at a time. He is highly talented, gets to the line very strongly and although this is by far the strongest line-up he's faced, he drops from 56kg when winning here five weeks ago to just 53.5kg. Unless he leaves his A game at home he'll be winning again.

Can't Keeper Down (No10) produced a surprisingly weak finish at Awapuni last start, but the conditions that day brought a few undone. She's a lot better than that and is worth another look today. In To Win (No12) might quickly be looking for a middle distance, but won so easily over this 1600m when resuming he needs including in multiples.

Occedentalis (No5, R7) certainly found the right race and conditions at Pukekohe last start and could not have been more impressive in winning. He's high class and at a nice 54.5kg level here looks beautifully placed. Even the barrier draw looks ideal.

Mill Duckie (No7) is heading to a high ranking. That fresh-up win was no fluke and with her ability to finish powerfully she is always a threat. Awesome Planet (No10) could be the one to add value to multiple bet tickets.

It's never easy for mares to carry weights around 58kg, particularly over distance races. But All In Black (No1, R8) still rates highly today. She was the beaten equal favourite here two weeks ago, but put that down to the track conditions.

The favourable factor is that with the possible exception of Smoking Chimneys (No5), the winning chances are all within 1kg of All In Black in the handicap. She has the class to overcome the difficulties.