There will be a moment seconds into tomorrow night's A$200,000 Victoria Derby when Maurice McKendry will know whether Lincoln Royal is with him or against him.
And that could decide the fate of the New Zealand challenge in the classic on the last night of harness racing at Moonee Valley.
McKendry faces a tricky drive on Lincoln Royal, who races as Sir Lincoln in New Zealand, as the pair start from one on the second line.
While that is difficult in most races around the leader-bias Moonee Valley track, it is especially so for Lincoln Royal, who doesn't like racing in tight spaces.
"He is definitely one of those horses who likes to be out and doing it," said McKendry.
To that end McKendry will be hoping to push away from the inside immediately after the start, ideally on to the back of Lanercost, who he is drawn alongside.
If he is able to pull that masterstroke off, Lincoln Royal could be well suited by the likely hot pace and use his stamina and strength to bully his Australian rivals in the last lap.
But it isn't quite as simple as all that.
"He can get a bit fierce and not come back to you, so a lot will depend on whether he lets me do all that," said McKendry.
One fact the 2700-plus win reinsman knows for sure is that Lincoln Royal is good enough to overcome the draw.
He was thrilled by his crushing heat win last Friday, which, added to his Sires' Stakes win in November and national 2200m record last month, earns Lincoln Royal a rating among the best young horses McKendry has driven.
"I have always thought a bit of him and he felt great last week, perfect really.
"If he had drawn the front I would have been very confident."
Lincoln Royal is joined in the Kiwi challenge by Courage To Rule, who was a brave third in his heat and could upset from his wide front-line draw.
The pair meet a strong Australian crop though, many by new boom sire Art Major.
The best of those in the heats was Major Bronski, who stunned fans of For A Reason by sitting parked outside him to win.
He and the other heat winner Lanercost have also drawn the second line, suggesting some mid-race moves, which could aid Sir Lincoln's cause.
For A Reason disappointed last week but looks set to lead or trail, from where he will be hard to beat, while Chariot King, trained by harness racing personality John Tapp, is a trier and looks better suited to the Derby distance than most.
VICTORIA DERBY
* Lincoln Royal and Courage To Rule represent New Zealand in the A$200,000 Victoria Derby tomorrow night.
* Lincoln Royal looks the best horse in the race but has potentially the worst draw.
* Driver Maurice McKendry's first job is to get the colt away from the inside.
* The Derby has been a great race for Kiwi raiders over the past 20 years.
Racing: Royal chance of NZ success
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