Racing: Rotorua track could prove heavy nightmare

There is one word that defines sensible punting at Rotorua this afternoon - caution.

Today has the potential to be a nightmare for race fans.

Summer firm-track horses racing on a heavy surface is not a scenario that fills you with the confidence to grab a handful of dollars and do something foolish.

The Rotorua track was yesterday 4.7 heavy with little chance of any great recovery because of the odd shower continuing to lurk.

Conditions put a similar cloud over the three open races on the programme, which on a decent surface promised to be great contests.

Earlier, a maiden event appeals as a likely result. There is a smart trials performer on debut in this race, Thunder Road (No9), who will find this easier now the probably favourite Turnip McKenzie has been withdrawn. If he reproduces his trials form he'll go close.

Hassi Messoud (No6, R1) has fought pretty well in her last two starts that she deserves to be favourite in a race that has no depth of class at all. The plus is that her last-start third was at Rotorua - it's always a pointer when they've shown they can manage this track.

Vision (No3, R4) is going to take money, but there has to be some small question mark. She has not started on a heavy track, but has a two-from-three strike rate on soft footing and has the added advantage of being a course winner.

Still, a safer option might be Titian (No1) who will find Buddy Lammas' 2kg apprentice allowance very agreeable. He likes bad ground - practically all his form is on soft and heavy - the only slight concern is that he has not placed in three previous visits to Rotorua. Titian each way might be the safe option.

I Rock My World (No4) and Go Thenaki (No2) are the two who will be most suited by the ground in the sprint. Few in this class win three straight, but I Rock My World has done everything right and will find the line strongly, something that will define winners today.

You just have to love backing Haylee Baylee (No4, R8), she tries her heart out and you never get to see a bad run from her. She was only just topped off by Partee in the Matamata Cup, the pair drawing right away from the others.

Ben Sparta (No1, 8) is a lot better suited to this race than to the Kelt Capital Stakes on a firm track last start. This is 1900m and he is also an acceptor for the 1200m weight-for-age Lion Red Plate earlier in the programme. If the trainer has been serious about leaving until late to decide which race, you'd have to wonder what type of work he has done with the horse all week.

Our Kitty (No8), Star O'The Ball (No9) and Hi Yo Wassup (No10) are chances in a sharp field.

The Lion Red Plate is a nightmare.

With only 48.5kg the 3-year-old fillies Boudi Woudi (No10, R6), Missy Elliot (No11) and Crepe De Chine (No9) had a huge advantage over the older horses on a decent track, but at least some of that will be negated on a track where they are probably going to have to slog. Crepe De Chine will have her speed blunted to some extent, but the other two fillies have form on wet tracks and might be at least partially suited. Millennium (No2) will love the conditions and can win and Baltaine (No3), despite not being as well suited in the weights this time, won't be far away.