KEY POINTS:
Mainland Banner's greatest rival could be her biggest ally in the race of the year at Moonee Valley tonight.
The New Zealand mare faces the toughest test of her stellar career as she attempts to overcome a second line draw in the A$325,000 ($370,000) Victoria Cup.
That draw means she is likely to settle a long way from red hot favourite Blacks A Fake, who is expected to lead.
Around a track tighter than she is used to and having her first start in Australia, that might be enough to spell the end of Mainland Banner's chances.
Which is where an old enemy may come in handy.
Mainland Banner's nemesis this season has been Flashing Red, who beat her in the New Zealand Cup and Ashburton Flying Stakes.
On both occasions Flashing Red, with a better preparation, was simply too tough for the mare after she had to give him a huge start.
Tonight, out of the firing line may be the place to be as Flashing Red's trainer Stu Hunter has declared his stayer will turn tonight's 2570m thriller into trench warfare, vowing his charge will attack Blacks A Fake if the favourite leads.
"If the race turns into an 800m sprint home, Flashing Red can't win it," admits Hunter.
"I know he's not the fastest horse in the race, but I think he's the toughest.
"He's never raced better and you saw last week what he can do when he's driven to make the race a real staying test."
Flashing Red parked outside Victoria's best stayer, Sting Lika Bee, and simply beat him at his own game. He took a whopping 2s off the track record in the process.
"Sure, Blacks A Fake will probably lead this week and he's a better horse than Sting Lika Bee, but Flashing Red will be driven the same way again ... he has to be to have a winning chance," Hunter said.
"Plenty of the top horses can run home their last two quarters [400m splits] in 28s, but where Flashing Red comes into his own is the fact he can run three of them on end.
"Geoff [Webster] knows I want him to really be pouring the pressure on Blacks A Fake from at least the 1200m.
"He'll be driving to beat the leader and often that takes the sting out of those trying to chase you as well. Blacks A Fake is a fantastic horse, look at his record, but we'll test him out this time.
"If Blacks A Fake wins, he'll really have to earn it."
A look at Flashing Red's record this year supports Hunter's claim - he wins his races by simply overpowering his rivals.
The 9-year-old has broken five track records and one world record in the past 10 months.
Hunter's public declaration of tactics will thrill many rival trainers and drivers who feared Blacks A Fake would lead, dictate his own terms and win tonight.
"I'd love Flashing Red to keep Blacks A Fake honest and judging by the way he's racing I'm sure he will," Be Good Johnny's trainer-driver John McCarthy said.
And the connections of Mainland Banner will feel the same.
With the likelihood she will settle back in the field, she will need a hot pace to have any chance of swooping on the leaders late.
That will require a new weapon in the mare's armoury as in the past her most stunning performances have been when she doesn't work early and then gets to the parked out position before outstaying her rivals.
Tonight her favoured parked out position may not be up for grabs, so she will almost certainly have to come wide and try and outprint the leaders over the last 400m.
That scenario is so difficult around Moonee Valley that some Australian bookmakers have even got the mare at an amazing $11 to win tonight.
Blacks A Fake opened a $2 favourite after drawing the ace but has been heavily backed around Australasia and is likely to start around $1.85.
With any sort of easy section in front he has to be the one to beat, especially after showing blazing gate speed in his last win.
If Hunter is correct and the race does turn into a slog, then Be Good Johnny looks the value.
He was awesome winning the Miracle Mile last start and has very high speed when saved for one run.
The other Kiwi in the race, Tribute, faces a huge task from his second line draw, especially as he races best close to the pace.
Tonight's other feature, the A$100,000 Australasian Trotting Grand Prix, sees Kiwi stars Delft, Glenbogle, Whatsundermykilt and Romper Stomper take on local hero A Touch Of Flair. With good draws and gate speed the stablemates Glenbogle and Whatsundermykilt look the best chances of continuing New Zealand's proud record in the race.
