Keep The Peace, winner of Saturday's $250,000 Mudgway Stakes, appears only a slim chance to make the field for the A$2.5 million Caulfield Cup on October 16 based solely on the weights declared yesterday.
However, it's more complicated than that.
It's put enormous pressure on Cambridge trainer Shaune Ritchie to have Keep The Peace perform well in the Turnbull Stakes, along with the same pressure for Matamata colleague Andrew Scott with My Keepsake.
Keep The Peace, with Queensland Oaks winner My Keepsake, have been given just the minimum weight of 50kg by chief Melbourne handicapper Greg Carpenter.
That places My Keepsake 164th in the order of entry into the race and Keep The Peace 145th, but the actual entry is considerably more intricate.
Firstly, horses have to be qualified by stakemoney earned, then there is a distance qualification. Of the horses left, the first to gain entry to the field are those whose allotted handicap is closest to weight-for-age.
My Keepsake and Keep The Peace's 50kg places them 6.5kg below weight-for-age.
On that basis, there are 52 horses ahead of them to gain the field, but there is a strong chance some of those will not meet other criteria.
Ritchie thought the mare's win in the Mudgway Stakes last Saturday, sitting alongside her group one NZ Oaks win last season, would get her at least half a kilo, probably a full 1kg, above the minimum.
"I'm not blueing because if she gets into the field with 50kg I'll be laughing, but there would seem to be some doubt looking at the weights.
"But I have to say I'm mystified how a dual group one winner doesn't get at least something above the minimum."
There are several races in Melbourne that have automatic qualifying clauses for the Caulfield Cup.
Although it's a loose definition, the Turnbull Stakes, at Flemington on October 2, is one of those races.
Carpenter said last night a placing in the Turnbull by Keep The Peace "would" get her a run in the Melbourne Cup - a race connections don't want to run in - and "should" gain entry to the Caulfield Cup.
"The Melbourne Cup entry is more cut and dried, whereas the Melbourne Racing Club [which stages the Caulfield Cup] selects the field if one horse's form is better than another's on the same weight.
"A 1-2-3 result in the Turnbull [2000m] should get her into the field," he said of the Caulfield Cup.
Bart Cummings' pair of classy 3-year-old fillies from last season, Faint Perfume (VRC Oaks) and Dariana (Queensland Derby), have been given 52kg and 51.5kg.
Harris Tweed and Monaco Consul both have 54kg in the Caulfield Cup and Red Ruler has 53.5kg, with all three certain to make the final field.
Racing: Ritchie faces battle to get Caulfield Cup start
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